Research On The Methods And Models Of Emergency Material Mobilization Decision-making

The paper aims to discuss about the method and its model system reflecting the characteristics of Mobilization Decision-making of Emergency material. Through the method and its model system, the optimal mobilization scheme under the uncertain condition can be attained. Also this set of methods and models would serve the exploiting of Emergency Material Mobilization Intelligence Decision Support System (EMMIDSS) and realizing the scientific and timely revolution of emergency material mobilization management decision-making. It introduces the method of Artificial Intelligence and the uncertain mathematics programming to the analysis on mobilization decision-making of emergency material and pays more attention to the optimal problem of mobilization decision-making of emergency material under uncertain condition. The paper adopts the research method of summarizing, decomposing and summarizing. Firstly, on the whole, it divides mobilization decision-making of emergency material into the following three groups: the forecast and classification, the collection and the distribution of emergency material. Then, it studies each group further more one by one, establishes the optimal model, and works out the solution thinking and the procedure of settling problems of each group. Lastly, it takes every research achievement together to study the mobilization decision-making of emergency material on the whole, through which the optimal decision-making scheme can be attained. Also, scheme includes not only the chosen place and the quantity of the mobilization, but also the optimal route from the mobilization place to the demand place.The forecast and classification of the demand analysis of emergency material is the premise and basis of mobilization decision-making of it, which is also the key point of the study on the national economics at present. The paper, based on the analysis on the contents and characteristics of emergency material requirement, adopts relative theories and methods of Artificial Intelligence, puts forward predictive method of emergency material requirement based on case-based reasoning (CBR), and works out fuzzy reasoning model of case and reasoning procedure. The method above is adopted to describe the situation and deal with the information from the emergency, which can help to get the result of emergency material requirement. What's more, the forecast result includes the quantity requirement, quality requirement and structure requirement of material, which conquers the subjectivity and...