| The competition among enterprises is not simply the product and market competition with the increasing of R&D investment scale, the shortening of technology and product lifecycle since 1990s. Technology has become a new focus of competition. The R&D capital of enterprises has a large proportion in the executive cost. R&D decision has become the core and emphasis of technology management. Efficient, flexible, quick evaluation of R&D investment is the enterprise's lifeline. However, the uncertainties, which derive from customer demand, technology and market competition, make R&D investment of enterprise very complex. Nowadays it is very difficult in dealing with the uncertainties of R&D investment by using the traditional logic of R&D investment strategy. In order to keep enough free active ability for enterprise, decrease the blindness of R&D investment, adjust and relax the inelasticity and bluntness of feedback for the logical illegibility, many researchers and practitioners have paid attention to the importance of flexible evaluation of R&D investment.Based on the meanings of"flexibility", the meanings of flexible evaluation of R&D investment is to increase the flexibility of R&D investment, improve the ability of satisfying uncertainty demand and responding to the unpredictable problem, and enhance the ability of feedback to competitor strategy by using evaluation methods and models such as game theory, real option, artificial neural network, genetic algorithm and real option game.Focused on R&D investment processes, this dissertation identifies different flexible factors from five processes: R&D investment opportunity, R&D investment risk, R&D investment project selection, R&D investment value and R&D investment timing. Consequently, this dissertation forms a series of systematic flexible evaluation models of R&D investment.As for the flexible evaluation of R&D investment opportunity, the R&D investment opportunity should include the R&D investment market opportunity and the maturity level of R&D process. Based on the NPV value of R&D investment market opportunity and option value with option characteristecs, this dissertation constructs flexible evaluation models of R&D investment market opportunity. By constructing flexible evaluation models of R&D process maturity level, this dissertation divided R&D process maturity level into eight levels: ignorance, detection, evaluation, mediancontrol, variable control, process characteristics, know-why and complete knowledge. By using game analysis, this dissertation designs independent R&D and collaboration R&D strategy mode of realizing R&D investment opportunity from the perspective of industry chain.As for the flexible evaluation of R&D investment risk, this dissertation explores the key factors of flexible evaluation system of R&D investment risk and offered the designing ways and steps of flexible evaluation system. Combined the PCA ways with system dynamic models, this dissertation constructs nonlinear flexible evaluation system of R&D investment risk on the basis of RBF&BP artificial neural network.As for the flexible selection of R&D investment project, this dissertation divides the R&D investment projects into some independent modules (such as process test module and new product development module) and independent periods of time (such as basic technique development period and process upgrading period). By using genetic algorithm R&D investment sub-projects are selected flexibly according to the R&D investment projects modules. Supposed the index and period weights known and unknown, R&D investment sub-projects are selected flexibly according to the R&D investment projects periods. Introduced into optimal line method, this dissertation designed extended optimal line models of flexible selection of R&D investment project.As for the flexible evaluation of R&D investment value, according to process test and new product development module, this dissertation divides R&D investment into new product development investment real option and abandoning and reclaiming residual value real option. According to the investment rules, the implement probability of R&D investment can be got. Combined with the analysis of projects income, this dissertation constructs quantitative models of project total value including investment flexible value and analyzed the effect of investment proportion on investment value, then gets optimal value.As for the periodic flexible evaluation of R&D investment value, considering the probability of product upgrade after basic technique investment, this dissertation assumes the opportunity of product upgrade as embedded option. Basic technique investment is equivalent to hold an option analogous to a financial option: compound American call option. The investment value of product upgrade can be specified as cost saving and demand pulling. This dissertation analyzes different R&D investment opportunity value and gets the optimal critical level of investment by using real option evaluation method.As for the flexible evaluation of R&D investment timing, by introducinginvestment cost, future operating profitability and its volatility, investment hysteresis loss rate and the correlation coefficient of competing firms, considering the impact of competitor strategic feedback, this dissertation constructs option game model from the two game parties in the enterprise competition. The variables of R&D investment timing such as the investment relative profitability interval, investment time and two-stage game probability are calculated. The numerical analysis result of influencing factors was also offered.As for the flexible evaluation model of independent key processes of R&D investment, numerical analysis, case application, empirical statistical analysis were done accordingly. The scientific, efficient and applicable flexible evaluation model of R&D investment opportunity, R&D investment risk, R&D investment project selection, R&D investment value and R&D investment timing are tested.
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