The Research On The Interactive Influence Between Stock Market And Monetary Policy In China

With the development of the stock market, its impact upon the economic life is greater and greater. The interactive influence between the stock market and the monetary policy, repeatedly proved by the historical events, has attracted more and more attention in recent years, thus becomes a hot and edging topic. Therefore, the study of the interactive influence of these two and the attitude taken by the monetary policy of our country towards the stock price fluctuation is of important theoretical and practical value.The thesis mainly concerns the interactive influence between the stock market and the monetary policy, that is how the stock market influences the monetary policy, and the latter's influence on the former. On the basis of the interactive effect between the stock market and the monetary market, it puts forward the adoptable attitudes our monetary policy to the stock market presently.Logically, the paper is composed of three parts.The first part studies the influence of the stock market towards the monetary policy. Mainly contains: the impact of the stock market towards the ultimate target, (mostly the economic growth and the inflation); the stock market towards the money demand, the stock market to the money suply and the stock market to the transmission and effect of the monetary policy.The second part is on the impact of the monetary policy to the stock market price fluctuation, mainly the effect of the money suply (includes the levels of Mo, M₁, M₂) on the stock index; the short and long term influence of interest rate adjustment on the stock price, and also the effect the exchange rate on the stock price.The last part analies the attitude of the monetary policy on the stock price fluctuation , and also proposes some recommendations. It is largely on the historical events and the teachings of the monetary policy and stock market bubble, the theoretical difference between the attitude the monetary policy to the stock market, the conclusion of the interactive influence between the stock market and the monetary policy, the adoptable attitude of the monetary policy to the stock market in the present stage, the prospect of our monetary policy to stock marketAplying the theoretical analysis, empirical research, the passage also uses the relevant new theories and aproaches of macro-econometrics, such as the analysis of the Stochastic co-integration theory, short and long term causality test On the basis oftheory and empirical research, we have the following conclusion:1, At present; the monetary policy should pay close attention to the stock market, but not the direct control. When the stock price rises, we should use other macro or micro-economic methods, rather than the monetary policy, so as to prevent the serious unreasonable bubbles. Hower, we would not exclude the usage of the monetary policy. At present, we should pay attention to cultivate the ability of "influencing the stock price with tools of monetary policy", such as the stock market credit guarantee; stock mortgage loan; the central bank's window operation, and so on.2, In the future, when the stock market develops into a certain stage, the stock market index should be an auxiliary monitoring index, (whether it can be used as a intermediate target will be studied with the considering of the future situation.), and attempts should be made to regulate the stock price.