A Study On Factors Affecting Labor Supply During Transition Period In Urban China

Our country comes into the population dividend stage, after experiencing fierce population transformation; the economy development is in high speed, since the reform and open policy our country has been experiencing the system switcher and the industrial structure adjustment. When the work supplies make the tremendous contribution to the economical growth, the cities work participation rate rapid drop. The research on labor suppliers is helpful to promulgate real drop degree and the concrete reason of the participation rate, and the indication new question appeared in future. This article from demography, labor economics, sociology, econometrics and other aspect, multi- angles of view, researches participation rate determining factor as well as personal labor supplies policy-making pattern.The article first carries on to the domestic and foreign correlations theory and the research results, taking this as foundation of further studies. Based on successive studies, I make the classification to the work supplies influence factor: demology factor, economical factor, social factor, population migration factor, system factor. And I make some theoretic illation based on actual status on social and economical fluctuant in our country, attempting to explain the reason of cities participation rate drop in our country in theory. Then making use of vital statistics, societal and economical statistics, economical computation, and spatial statistics, I do demonstration and study on labor supply change in our country from both macroscopical and microcosmic aspect. Including:1 .Quantity and configuration of city population affect city labor supply. Because of the diversification of city function, the non-economical activity population grows up rapidly. Secondly, because the population transforming structure, using standardization method, the article separates the population sex structure and the age structure influencing all causes the participation rate drop.The article also conducts the research to individual lifelong labor supplies, the city male, the city females, the town male, the town feminine, average expectation employment years is 34.58 years, 29.61 year, 37.83 year and 33.07 years, the average expectation unemployment years is in 3.10 years, 3.77 years, 2.93 years and 2.77 years.2.Regardless of the macroscopic data analysis or the microscopic policy-making pattern, the income is an important influence factor to participation rate. Two-side analyses result highly consistently, also is consistent with the international development rule. The quota relations of individual wage rate and work supplies time is negative, not means that the income effect is bigger than the substitution effect, but means that the labor market division and the work post system restraint affects together leading to, simultaneously the family responsibilities have the adverse effect to the personal labor participation. Therefore the weak community meets the employment trap, works more for wages less. Poor employment is more difficult.3.The unemployment rate not only exists in "returns stagnates" phenomenon, moreover in "increases worker effect" and "the depressed worker effect". This article by multi-returns, the vector from the return, the Grainger causes and effects analysis method confirms the unemployment rate influencing to the participation rate, and the result indicates as following: the influence of unemployment rate on participation rate representing as " increase worker effect" in the corresponding period. When the family member lose work, other non-economical activity members will hunt jobs at once to make up income deficiency. The influence of stagnates is that unemployment exit labor market when they cannot find a job for a long time. The influence of unemployment on participation rate is inversed.4.The development of higher education is in favor of improving labor participation rate. Although the individual and social labor participation rate drops down in accepting education period, the net value of education is improving labor suppliers in a long life and future time. The redound of education not only represents in high wage rate, but in supplying more labor quantity.5. Describing and analyzing family members employment estate associating highly, is distinct convergence. When one economical activity drops out, another drops out also; one drops in, another drops in also. This is quite different from traditional family division of labor. But the study also shows that family division of labor inner still exists. That means convergence is because of the condition of choosing spouse, and family division labor is because of rational decision. employment relationship also exists between husband and wife, father and son6. Population migration increase the chance of city labor supplier, also can substitute citizens labor supplier covering about 7% only. The population migration causes the national labor supplies tend to consistently (unemployment rate restrained), but this superficial unification is from the exogenous agricultural labor flow, and the urban population flow is certainly without elasticity. Thus, this kind of region labor market relation is not organic, the region division still the exists, mainly result of the urban population itself migration indolent inertia.Sums up, city labor participation rate dropping in our country mainly because that increased income makes family inner division labor possibility; increased employment cost and change of family structure deepen family division labor. Rational decision is the main reason of the participation dropping.