Research On Operation Law Of Electric Economy In China

Electricity, as a human's existent demand, an important basis for economic development and social progress, is linked to the national economic lifelines and national security strategic "material". It is an important foundation for socio-economic sustainable development and has very important positions in the well-off society of comprehensive construction. On the basis of analyzing electric industrial development background and theoretical research, this paper studies supply and demand law of power consumption in china, and analyze dynamic relation between power demand and economy relevant elements which influence power demand (Including GDP, investment in fixed assets, size of population) systematically, constructs many targets decision mathematical models of development of power demand.China's power industry is facing new challenges and opportunities, Appropriately analyze superiority conditions and limiting factors which our country current and a future period of time power demand environment will face in this paper.With our country appearing large area power shortage as the breakthrough point in recent years, from system reason, supply and demand, coal and electricity's relations and so on many angles angle to explain our country power shortage origin that produces, further elaborated because power shortage brought to China politics, economy and society influences, briefly propose Chinese power prospects for development and policy suggestion.Using grey systems theory and state space transition matrix, the dispersed structure solve of model GM (1, N) is studied in depth; Has analyzed Chinese current power region development level, power demand and industrial structure,elastic coefficient of electricity consumption's control system, power demand and fixed assets investment dynamic economic adjustment and control, and so on, a series of power economic problem.Relative to the field of more mature economic cycle research, the development of power cycle fluctuations are still in an exploration phase basically in our country. This article utilize a new cycle analytical method-grey systematic theory,regarding power consumption of whole society as research object, study dynamic fluctuating period of China power demand with classical HP filter method, analyse Primary industry, Secondary industry,tertiary industry cycle fluctuations changes in the past and future time.In view of Chinese power demand forecast this important question, uses the state space model and the Kalman filter forecast method, as well as the econometrics, establishes Chinese power demand mathematical model among relevant economic elements, predict Chinese power consumption of the following 5 years (2006-2010).The result of study shows the imbalance development of power industry mainly results from several reasons including our country is vast in territory, economic development is imbalance, isolated among regions on power market, and uneven distribution and power demand resource. From the viewpoint of industrial structure, both secondary industry and tertiary industry are greater than primary industry to the growth elasticity of power demand. The investment in fixed assets of the whole society has a greater effect on power industry than GDP in a certain extent. It is the condition to keep coordinated development of power industry and national economy that lower limit of benchmark of electricity consumption coefficient of elasticity is larger than 1.0. Development tendency of power in china demonstrates obvious medium and long-term cycle, and the fluctuating cycle is about 8 years. Finally, Considering the characteristic of power demand and the relation among 4 key elements such as power consumption, fixed assets investment, GDP and population, we forecast that national installed capacity will exceed 700 kw, over increase of GDP on growth rate in 2010.Power industry is facing unprecedented development opportunities and challenges; this article is intended to reflect the national energy development strategy, with scientific development concept as guidelines, In order to construct the electric industrial structure of saving type and be suitable for the electric consumption structure of the China's actual conditions, in order to construct the harmonious society, build the saving type society to make the meagre contribution in China.