Research On Hog Spot Market And Hog Futures Market Of China

The paper firstly studies the production, the circulation service system, imports and exports of hog in our country. The results show that in our country there are a variety of hogs. Most of them are lardtype, the quality of which are not a patch on the hogs' of foreign countries; the circulation service system in our country is "a small circulation", for the information is dissymmetrical, as a result of which the costs of cultivation have been increased.In the foundation of comprehensive analysis of spot market, we find that the costs, the yearly number of slaughtered hogs and policy all impact the prices of hog remarkably. The coefficients are 1.149 and -0.016. On the one hand, the government can interfere with the prices of hog directly through constituting prices policy; On the other hand, the government can interfere with the prices of hog indirectly by influencing the costs and the yearly number of slaughtered hogs. The paper also makes research to the fluctuant periodicity of prices and the results show that price of this month is influenced by itself of one month ago, one year ago and nineteen months ago. The coefficients are 0.295, 0.436 and -0.121. The results also show that the fluctuant periodicity of prices is thirty-eight months.Using GM (1, 1) model to make a prediction of the output of hogs in the next five years, the paper has output of hogs in the next five years, which are 677250000, 711530000, 747540000, 785380000 and 825130000. The average rate of increment is five percent. Besides, the paper also discovers a causality relationship between the output of hog and that of com.In the part of futures market, the paper firstly makes a comprehensive research about the essential function of the furtures market and studies the efficiency of hog market after the establishment of hog futures market, and discovers that if reducing fluctuation of spot price by 5%, the improved efficiency will be above 24.5 billion yuan, which is equal to 0.26% of GDP of our country in 2001. The paper then makes a research on the developing process of hog futures, delivery system and standard of variety in foreign countries, and delivery system and standard of variety in our country, together with designs spot prices index of hogs which is uniform in our entire country. The results of research show that choosing crossbred hogs which are crossbreed by three given purebred hogs, is appropriate and cash settlement is more helpful than common settlement to implement the function of futures market in our country.