Research On The Criteria Of The Choosing Of Leading Sectors

Leading sector is the locomotive of regional economic growth, promoting the development of regional economy through its serial diffusing and driving function. Heretofore, the Scholars from internation and domestic have made many researches in this subject. All of them can be focused in constituting the system of indexes and in the choking methods of synthesize evaluation. But different researchers have different criteria and different methods of measuring criteria. So the results of choicing leading sector is different greatly. What is the relation between these criteria ?How to measure these criteria correctly ? It is important for choosing leading sector rightly to answer these questions, To the two questions above, I will study them with input-output analysis.The criteria of the choice of leading sector are separated into demand side and supply side. The criterias of demand are backward linkages, elasticity of demand to income, compare advantage. In this part, we will find the relation between backward linkages, scale, elasticity of demand to income, and compare advantage.In supply, the forward linkage is measured firstly. The measurements of forward linkage based on the Leontief's model and Ghosh's model is compared. Now we need measure TFPG of each sector. Some effort is probed into measure TFPG through input-output model. At last, I will discuss the measurement the spillover of each sector. It is arranged like this because of TFPG is spillovered from other sectors.This article has three main conclusions. Firstly, the weighting back linkage, which is formed with back linkage and scale , means elasticity. the weighting back linkage, elasticity of demand to income, and dynamic compare advantage forms driven power. Secondly, C&W'back linkage can explain a majority of Rasmussen's back linkage , Rasmussen's back linkage with Scale can explain a majorrity of hypothetic extraction's linkage. Thirdly, forward linkage of Ghosh model shouldn't be criteria of choicing of leading sector. Judged from the productivity, the TFPG, spillovers should be criteria of choicing of leading sector.