Actuarial Study On Long-Term Health Insurance

Actuarial research play a significant role in sustainable long-term health insurance's operation and development. Chinese long-term health insurance industry is being initial stages, so studying on pricing, unearned premium reserve becomes impendent and important.This dissertation focuses on actuarial study on long-term health insurance with method of combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, establishing separately continuous pricing model of critical illness insurance, long-term care, and disability based on drawing on Markovian multi-state model. Then, the paper establishes also discrete pricing model of whole life cancer insurance and limited whole life medical insurance. Moreover, issues on unearned premium reserve of long-term health insurance, cash flow testing, and design of insurance policies are deeply discussed.This dissertation is composed of 5 chapters. In chapter 1, the author reviews relative literatures, especially analyzes mainly current research on actuarial on long-term health insurance abroad, Chapter 2 applies Markovian multi-state model to long-term health insurance, constructing separately continuous pricing model of critical illness insurance, long-term care, and disability. Chapter 3 establishes discrete pricing model of whole life cancer insurance and limited whole life medical insurance. In chapter 4, issues on unearned premium reserve of long-term health insurance and cash flow testing are deeply discussed. Chapter 5 analyzes limitations in clauses of insurance polices of critical illness insurance, long-term health insurance, and long-term care, meanwhile makes some suggestions for improving relative clauses.Innovations in the dissertation are as follow:(1) particularly describing Markovian multi-state model and its applications in critical illness insurance, long-term care insurance, and disability insurance.(2) particularly introducing discrete pricing model of whole life cancer insurance, figuring out net single premium of man first suffering from cancer and exploring influencing factors on pricing.(3) constructing a cash flow model of long-term health insurance, analyzing cash flow, operation cost and claim expenditure of long-term health insurance,as well as influencing factors on cash flow from Monte Carlo Simulation's perspective.(4) designing special insurance polices for old man's long term care demand, working out premium and unearned premium reserve.(5) providing some suggestions for improving some clauses with limitations, such as category of critical illness in critical illness insurance, scope of big surgery in long-term health insurance, and payment term in long-term care insurance.