The Decision Of The Optimal Savings Rate And Macroeconomic Effects

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, the Chinese savings rate that has remained at a high level has been more and more the concern of economists at home and abroad. China's high savings rate has afforded to the economic development of adequate sources of financing, supports rapid economic growth and is an important factor. More importantly, an endless flow of funds guarantee the liquidity of financial institutions and enhanced the bank's stability. At the same time, but also to China's economic development unprecedented challenges has been brought. Therefore, we must prepare in advance and tackle successfully the disadvantages, so as to serve the healthy development of China's economic.Papers use modern tools of economic analysis to try to establish a new framework for analysis of the optimal savings rate to explain its decision mechanism. And then, in order to research the optimum savings rate decision mechanism in the quantity deeply, we build an optimal savings rate model and make an empirical Analysis to obtain optimal savings rate in China. Further, from this new perspective of the main savings on the inspection of its consumption, investment and financial effects and other macroeconomic effects, finally, proposed a system of resolving mechanism, inhibit economic risks and crises.In its introduction, the part of the papers firstly analyzed systematically on documentations of the optimal savings rate at home and abroad and find the previous assessment of the contribution and inadequate. For the Chinese new practice of savings rate, there is an urgent need to make theory to guide practice because theories have been unable to meet the urgent needs of the theory.Among the first chapter, tried to use a new framework to explain the decision mechanism of optimal savings rate. First, define the concept of the optimal savings rate, and then through describing the evolution of the savings model, introducce its economic impact factors. Then analyze the institutional factors of the optimal savings rate decisions. Finally, through the reserchment on Typical of the world's three national savings rate by high or low savings rate classification, we study comparativally the determining factor on the basis of analyzing their deciding factor.In Chapter II, from the point of quantity, papers furtherly inspected the optimal savings rate decision mechanism. After sorting out the previous research results, respectively construct the optimal decision model to quantify the savings rate on base of the Solow model, Ramsey model, iterative model and convexity of economic growth model. We make Empirical analysis from three different angles to obtain the optimal savings rate and find that China's current savings rate has a deviation from the optimal savings rate trend.Among the third, fourth, five chapters, we inspected optimal savings rate macroeconomic effects from the investment, consumption and finance three levels. Chapters III and IV, respectively, first inspected the savings and investment, consumption, savings from internal focus on residents, businesses and the Government of this new perspective the main in-depth analysis. Then, from the static and dynamic respect ,we analyzed economic effects of investment and consumption, and then furtherly analyzed of its economic effects with China's high savings rate, high investment rate and low consumption rate. Finally, made the international perspective of comparative analysis. Papers in Chapter 5, the focus of its review is the financial economic effect: mainly from the financial system and capital markets both inspection, proposed a new analysis point of view from internal savings to the main point of view of China's savings rate, and found the impact of a high savings rate is pros and cons, we have to make early preparations, its close attention to China's banking system and capital market risks.In Chapter 6, through internal savings to residents, businesses and government three main factors determining the future evolution of the trend study, papers forecast the optimal savings rate in China's development trends.Chapter VII of papers, on the basis of previous six chapters analysis, proposed "three-step" convergence control system to promote China's savings rate convergence in the optimal savings rate, as soon as possible make the savings rate back to the optimum savings rate. The first step is to improve the convergence of the support system, the next step is to improve the convergence of platforms, the final third step is to improve the convergence of the adjustment mechanism.In this paper, the author has made main theoretical consideration as follows:1. Construct a new model, namely China optimum savings rate model.2. Carried out a new empirical analysis that the latest data collected, use the three methods of decision of optimal savings rate on base of Ramsey–Cass-Koopmans, Solow-Swann and Harold-Domar model to make the empirical research of China's savings rate.3. Propose a new idea, that is the convergence control system of "three-step" of promoting savings rate converging optimal savings rate.4. Put forward a new perspective, that is view of China's best savings rate from the main structure of savings, thereby completing macroeconomic analysis of the consumption, investment and financial effects.5. Proposed two new ideas:(1) starting domestic demand and expanding consumption can consider starting from reducing savings.(2) maintain optimal savings rate particularly important to the current financial health and stable operation.