A Research On The Control Methods Of Operational Risks For Electric Supply Company Under The Environment Of Transmission And Distribution Separation

For many years'efforts, the electricity market reform of China has achieved initial results. From the recently statues, "the Separation of Grid and Generation" has basicly finished, and the reform will enter the next important step. One of the main works of the next step is the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution", which means that the transmission enterprise and distribution enterprise will be separated step by step base on the original basis. Power Grid Company is responsible for the non-discriminatory transmission services to the other electricity market members, and the distribution enterprises are mainly responsible for representing the users to purchase electricity from generating companies, and transmit to the users safetly. From the recently electricity market structure, the supply company is undertaking the responsibility instead of the transmission and distribution company in the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution" environment, and its role and function have changed a lot in the electricity market. This brings both chances and risks to the supply company. However, the further freedom of the electricity market asks for that the supply company have to pay attention to the risk problem in its common management. Therefore, it is important for improving the management efficiency and the smooth transition of the supply company to research the risk manage problem, and it has great function and the significance. This is the background of this paper, and the meaningful contributions of the paper are shown as follows:1) Considering the Characteristics that the supply enterprise can buy electricity from several trading center in the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution" environment, the optimal model of cross-pricing strategy and distibution of electric energy strategy are constructed;2) Considering the problems that the power company may face the risk of default generation's contract issues and the long-term contract arrangements, the fuzzy probability is used to express the default generation's contract under the unfully condition, and the optimal dynamic programming model for long-term contracts is built, and the drop-dimensional semi-analyical method is present to solve the model;3) The fuzzy set theory is used to express the uncertainty reserve rate, and the semi-variance theory is used to express the risk of the reserve price. Base on the semi-variance theory, the electricity reserve capacity fuzzy strategy optimal model of the supply enterprise is present;4) The transmission characteristics of electricity price control mechanism of the foreign commonly used is analysed and compared. For China's recently status, the transmission tariff regulation incentive model is present, and the key factors of the model is analyzed;5) Base on the fuzzy set theory and the probability theroy, the model of the distribution investment risk evalution is present, and the relative rules is discussed;6) The quantity model for the interruptible load reducing supply enterprise reliability risk cost is presented, which includes the risk of reserve puchase and the risk cost of disturbution investment;7) The risk factors of the supply enterprise demand side management in the "Separation of Transmission and Distribution" environment is summarized, and the ISM analysis struction model is used to analyse the factors relations and the structure, which provides the informaiton to the supply enterprise.