Study On The Investment Decision-making Behavior Based On Bounded Rationality

Traditional decision study builds nearly perfect rational choice model based on the assumption of perfect rationality which aim at the risk attribution of economic phenomena. According to the model, people make complete rationality decision only if the decision environment is clear and certain (enough information attained), all selected projects are known, the result of every project is assured, and decision maker can make an array according to the utility value.However, this model slides over the bounded rationality and behavior bias of the people as the main body of decision act. With the development of economics, non-mainstream economists find many theories of traditional economics are not consistent with the realism and can not reply to some paradox. So economists begin to make up classical economic theories and modify utility and gift function, technological and market information structure. It is dejected that they haven't got the satifactory result. Then some scholar begin to pay attention to study the behavior of the human being and apply the cognitive behavior and behavior analyse method to economic analyse. At the same time, the experiment study of the behavior is called.In this paper, the behavior decision-making is studied based on bounded rationality by means of introducing the analyzing methods and ideas of behavior cognizance. Bounded rationality of Simon is the main base of behavior decision-making. On the basis of bounded rationality, the dimension of decision-making, the choice of bench and reference point and decision-making guidance is improved. Reference point is adjusted according to the decision-making guidance, environment, procedure and time rather than stabled by traditional rational decision-making theory. When decision made, the guidance should be the optimaztion subjected to bounded rationality and behavior bias. It is deferent with the rational optimaztion and unprincipled satisfaction guidance of bounded rationality.Above all, thinking about the theory perfection, method diversification and exactly mesurablity of project evaluation based rationality in traditional economics, the behavior decision-making theory model based on bounded rationality which is close to realistic decision-making. In this model, rational choice theory is a part reflection to decision-making practice. The rationality of main body is limited in complex decision-making environment and behavior bais is a disturbing variable is decion-making process. So the modification to rational choice model should be done. Based on the bounded rationality and behavior bias intergration model, the relative membership degree is built by means of the coherence change of the qualitative indexes of bounded rationality and the quantitative indexes and the decisions are made by inducing optimization theory. This new model is more scientific and stronger to explain the decision-making.Finally, the application of behavior decision-making based on bounde rationality is introduced. And a decision-making example of investment project is taken to expatiate the evaluation process of decision-making based on bouned rationality.This thesis is the part of the research on investment project economic appraisal based on bounded rationality which is funded by National Science Foundation (No.70572043).