| In the recent 20 years, the world oil price changes very frequently. China imports enormous oil every year. China's economy grows rapidly, dramatically expanding energy demand.Because the price fluctuation may impact the whole chain from raw material to final product, the world oil price fluctuation may threaten the Chinese price system and economic development.People find that oil price fluctuation had become an exogenous impact on the macroeconomy. The influence of oil fluctuation on China's economy has become one of the major concerns of intra- and international academe and government. Therefore, this paper used methods of econometrical analysis and empirical study to perform a thorough study on this topic.This paper analysises of the influences of oil price fluctuations on chinese macroeconomy.The paper is divided into seven chapters, the main content and structure are as follows:Chapterâ… Introduction. This chapter mainly focuses on the research status of the influnces of oil price fluctuations on the macroeconomy and reveals the research methods of this thesis.Chapterâ…¡Fluctuations of international oil prices and relations between the domestic and international oil prices. This chapter analyzes the historical volatility of oil price. We also analyze the relationship between supply and demand, oil inventories, cost of production, alternative energy sources and other uncertainties and the relationship between the price of oil and discussed China's oil pricing mechanism. Through the relationship between domestic and international crude oil prices of dynamic analysis, the following conclusions have given: (1)From the relevant results of domestic and international crude oil price level values, we can see that there was a significant correlation between domestic crude oil price and international crude oil price. (2)International oil price fluctuations'mean and Standard deviation are higher than domestic oil price's. That is to say international oil price fluctuations'magnitude and frequency are higher than domestic oil price's.(3)There is a long-term cointegration relationship between domestic crude oil price and international crude oil price. This shows that domestic crude oil price is passive tracking international crude oil price, domestic oil price can not reflect supply and demand situation on domestic oil market.(4)From the causal analysis between domestic oil price and international oil price, we can see that there is a one-way causal relationship between domestic and international oil prices crude. In the long run, this interaction will gradually weak.Domestic crude oil price is passive tracking international crude oil price,The reason is that domestic oil price formation mechanism is unreasonable.Despite domestic oil prices have achieved a convergence with international oil prices in 1998, it is only a simple price convergence rather than price formation mechanism coupling. National Development and Reform Commission reference to the international crude oil futures market pricing and make the crude oil benchmark price.In accordance with the benchmark price, three major oil companies determine the crude oil sell-purchase price. National Development and Reform Commission reference to the international crude oil futures market pricing and make the crude oil benchmark price.In accordance with the benchmark price, three major oil companies determine the crude oil sell-purchase price.This pricing mechanism can not feedback the changes of domestic oil prices in the form of prices'signals to the international market and participate in the formation of international oil prices.Also this pricing mechanism can make domestic oil price fall into petroleum import "buy-up and not buy-down" price trap and make domestic oil price face on the international oil prices volatility risks. Now the dependence on foreign oil imports will continue to increase. Under the circumstances, therefore, government pricing oil price formation mechanism must be adjusted accordingly.Through this method,we can increase say of domestic oil prices to international oil pricing and avoid international oil prices volatility risks.Chapterâ…¢Mathematical model analysis of international oil price.Oil as a commodity has the nature of goods. Oil prices are influencd by supply and demand relationship. At the same time ,supply and demand also influence the international oil price movements in a long time. By useing dynamic analysis methods in an ideal state, this chapter discusses changes in demand and supply affect on the oil market. This chapter also uses dynamic optimization model to analyze optimal oil exploitation path. In the circumstances of GDP and oil consumption in the number of relations, we find that if interest rate is greater and initial exploitation is more, the each period oil exploitation number is monotone decreasing.Chapterâ…£Relevance test of China's outputs,price and international oil price. By using cointegration theory and error correction model, this chapter analyzes the long-term balanced relationship and short-term fluctuations between international oil prices and China's GDP. The results show that there is a close relationship between China's GDP and international oil prices., International oil price fluctuations will cause changes in GDP in short-term. The current price of oil (from natural logarithm) increase of one unit will make this month's GDP (from the few) increased 0.01 units. On an increase of one unit of GDP, making the current value of GDP increased 0.834 units, and the two of the value of GDP increase of one unit will be made to reduce the current value of GDP 0.241. Last year the balance of non-error ratio to 0.4 percent of GDP this year to make the amendments to the negative, short-term fluctuations once deviated from the long-run equilibrium, error correction mechanism can use the rate of negative 0.4 percent to amended to return to normal orbit, China's GDP and international oil prices can exist the long-term equilibrium relationship.That is cointegration relationship. By using conditional heteroskedasticity model, the chapter also analyzes the relationship between international oil prices change rate and China's inflation rate. In the level value, trend components and fluctuations components, there is a significant one-way Granger causal relationship between international oil prices change rate and China's inflation rate. From the empirical analysis, international oil prices change rate composition has a significant impact on China's inflation rate trend composition, and overall influence marginal coefficient is 0.08. It shows that with the development of China's economy and the increase of international oil dependent, influences of international Oil Price on China's price level will gradually increase.Chapterâ…¤Nonlinear effects and asymmetric effect test of international oil price fluctuations and China's output fluctuations. By using LSTVAR and MS-VAR model we analyze nonlinear effects and asymmetric effects of international oil price fluctuations on China's output fluctuations.We find that China'p t / pt?1 threshold value is 1. 4896. It shows that when Chinese oil prices this quarter or the previous quarter with growth of more than 48.96%,there will be an significent impact on our economy. Recently, international oil prices volatile. In recent years, growth reached 9.3%, 34.8% and 37.1% respectively. And measuring the former threshold value, we find: China's economy can withstand the threshold value of 48.96% quarterly, the impact of oil prices is in affordable range. China's ?G DPt to oil price shocks with a standard deviation of information is not sensitive for a long period. In the face of oil price shocks after the 11th ?G DPt have a slight negative response, and then gradually increase the fluctuations rate. Such a result of oil prices and China-forming regions are anastomosis in a certain degree. China's oil prices are not entirely determined by the market, the international oil price fluctuations transmitted to the Chinese market for a considerably long conduction period. When the economy is in systolic, the first-order and second-order lag of the inflation rate have a positive influence on itself; the third-order and fourth-order lag have a negative influence on itself. The first-order and second-order lag of international oil prices significantly have a positive influence on the inflation rate. The first-order lag of real GDP growth rate significantly has a positive influence on the inflation rate, but the second-order lag of real GDP growth rate significantly has a negative influence on the inflation rate. The first-order and second-order lag of real GDP growth rate have a positive influence on itself. The first-order and second-order lag of the inflation rate have a negative influence on the real GDP growth rate; the first-order and second-order lag of the inflation rate have a positive influence on the real GDP growth rate. The first-order, second-order and third-order lag of international oil prices have a negative influence on the real GDP growth rate; the fourth-order lag of international oil prices has a positive influence on the real GDP growth rate. When economy is in a period of expansion, the first-order, second-order and third-order lag of the inflation rate have a positive influence on itself; the fourth-order lag has a negative influence on itself. The first-order, second-order and third-order lag of international oil prices significantly have a positive influence on the inflation rate; the fourth-order lag of international oil prices significantly has a negative influence on the inflation rate. The second-order and third-order lag of real GDP growth rate significantly have a positive influence on the inflation rate, but the first-order lag of real GDP growth rate significantly has a negative influence on the inflation rate. The second-order and third-order lag of real GDP growth rate have a positive influence on itself, the first-order lag of real GDP growth rate has a negative influence on itself.The second-order and third-order lag of the inflation rate have a negative influence on the real GDP growth rate; The first-order lag of the inflation rate has a negative influence on the real GDP growth rate. The first-order, second-order and third-order lag of international oil prices have a negative influence on the real GDP growth rate.Chapterâ…¥Influences of international oil price fluctuation on China's macro-economic balance. By using a mixed economy model of two departments, this chapter analyzes the influences of international oil price changes on China's economy. In terms of the model, influences of international oil price changes on China's gross domestic product is uncertain. We also find that oil prices volatility does not affect investment. Therefore, we need to use empirical testing methods to confirm. Through empirical analysis, it shows that changes in oil prices on China's gross domestic product, consumer price level, fixed asset investment and money supply are causal relationship, but there has no direct causal relationship with China's employment.Chapterâ…¦The countermeasures to cope with the international oil price shocks for our country.On the basis of the theoretical and empirical research of the former, We Provide the corresponding countermeasures to reduce the influences of international oil price fluctuations on chinese macroeconomy. These measures are reforming oil pricing system, establishing national strategic oil reserve system, developing oil futures market, enforcing oil alternative strategy.
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