Statistical Research On Urbanization And Economic Growth In China

Urbanization is the phenomena of spatial agglomeration with the development of economy and society. The level of urbanization is correlative with the extent of economy in a country or region. Economic growth facilitates urbanization and urbanization also accelerates economic and social development. As an important part of development, Chinese urbanization will obviously affect the future of its own and global development during transforming period. The problems about resource, environment and traffic are outstanding. They affect the sustainable development of the city and society.Technology innovateion shows more important pole in economic growth. People pay more attentions to inhance the capacity of innovation. Technology innovation capacity is detemined by a lot of factors such as institution, R&D, human capital and so on. Among these factors, urbanization is important because city is the "nursery" and "natural lab" of innovation's emergence and duffusion. During the course of ecomomic growth and urbanization, urban-rural income inequality is widened and obviously affects the whole income distribution, the aim of harmonious and well-off society. So it is essential to review the correlative machenism between urbanization and economic growth through technology innovation. It is also necessitous to discuss the effects of economic growth and urbanization to urban-rural income inequality, and evaluate the harmony between economic growth and urbanization.In order to achieve the above-mentioned aims, normative methods are combined with positive methods qualitative analysis is integrated with quantitative analysis. Normative methods are used to study the theoretic machenism among urbanization, technology innovation, economic growth and urban-rural income inequality. Positive methods are used to prove the theoretic machenism and analyze the actual effects. Many statistical and econometrical methods are applied in positive research. Statistical methods include correlative analysis, regression, principal component analysis, cluster analysis, spatial statistics and grouping. Dynamic econometrical methods include cointergration model, error correction model, Granger caulity test, impuls response function and variance decomposition. Fixed-effect model and random-effect model are used to estmate panel data by general OLS, instrument variable and GMM. Simulation analysis is applied to distinguish innovation spatial duffusion belonging to hierarchial diifusion or epidemic diffusion. The harmony between economic growth and urbanization is evaluated by coupling harmony model, grey correlation analysis and entropy variation function.The content of this study contains seven chapters. The first chapter elucidates the background, theoretical and practical meaning. And it reviews the related literature and brings forth the viewpoint, methods, aims and technical paths. In this part the difficultities, innovations and insufficiencies are also showed. The second chapter describes the spatial-temporal characters of economic growth and urbanization since reform and opening to outside world. And the correlateion between economic growth and urbanization is also analysized. The third chapter expatiate the theoretical machenism and model between urbanization and economic growth basing on the related research results. Agglemeration economics is regarded as the foundation between them. The research framework is constructed by regarding technology innovation as intermediary factors through which urbanization promote economic growth, urban-rural income distribution as the effect gone with economic growth and urbanization. The forth chapter puts forward the interaction mechanicsm between urbanization and technology innovation, and proves the correlation using data about cities and provinces. Then the interaction mechanicsm between urban system and innovateion duffusion is illuminated and proved by the example of innovation diffusion in the urban system of Yangze Delta. Basing on the macro and micro mechanism, the econometrical model of economic growth including urbanization and technology innovateion is constructed. Then empirical analysis is performed by panel data. The fifth chapter discusses the theoretical mechnanism which economic growth and urbanization affect urban-rural income inequality. Results show that urban bias is the main reason causing urban-rural income inequality to enlarge. Then the theoretical mechnanism between urban bias and urban-rural income inequality is explored. Empirical analyses are achieved to estimate the degree that economic growth, urbanization and urban bias affect urban-rural income inequality according to time series and panel data. The Correlation Modes between urbanization and economic growth are put forword in the sixth chapter. It also analyzes the dynamic relation between them by econometrical methods. The coupling harmony model, grey-relation model and entrophy variation function are applied to evaluate the harmony between urbanization and economic growth. The seventh chapter draws conclusion from all the discussions above, then brings forword some advices to enhance the harmony between urbanization and economic growth. The future orient of this research domain is also expected.Some conclusions are drawn from the theoretical and empirical analyses about the correlation and influence effects of urbanization and economic growth in China. First, the level of urbanization is highly correlative with economic growth. Economic growth facilitates urbanization and urbanization promotes economic growth. The foundation between them is agglemeration economics. Second, the privilege of specialization and diversity, human capital accumulation, knowledge and information communication network formation and transaction efficiency promotion cause innovation and invention to cluster together in city. Urbanization is propitious to innovation and its diffusion. Third, there is obvious spatial correlation between urban system and innovation diffuseion. Forth, technology innovation is a main intermediary factor between urbanization and economic growth. Fifth, urban bias accompanying with economic growth and urbanization widens urban-rural income inequality. Sixth, Chinese urbanization is harmonious with economic growth as a whole, but non-harmony exists in some extent.In order to establish the better interaction mechanism between urbanization and economic growth, some advices are put forword. First, urbanization is the inevitable trend during the course of economic growth, but urbanization must be basee on economic growth. Second, urbanization is an available way to enhance the capacility of technology innovation, so some means must be applied to encourage the development of all size cities and promote the central cities' pole. Third, the construction of traffic and information network among cities can provide good channels for innovateion diffusion. Forth, the strategy of "West Development" and "central China rising" must be carried out to reduce the disparities between regions. Urban bias in price, investment and financee must be turned to realize the equal development of city and country. Especially, the mechanism of "City supporting country" should be formed to accelerate the development of rural area. Fifth, the city growth mode must be transformed and over-urbanization due to urban bias and urban-rural inequality should be avoided.This study has several innovations comparing with other research. First, spatial autocorrelation is used to reflect the spatial cluster. Second, the correlation between urbanization and economic growth is discussed from the viewpoint of technology innovation. The theoretical mechanism and actual evidence between urbanization and technology, urban system and innovation diffusion are also put forword. Third, the model which urban bias affects urban-rural income inequality is constructed and empirical analysis is complished to prove the correlation. Forth, in order to reflect the direct connection between urbanization and economic growth, dynamic econometrical methods and three models are applied to evaluate their harmony. As a whole, the statistical character is obvious in this study.To a certain extend, this study reaches the expected aims. But it also exists some insufficiencies. For example, the theorical model of economic growth regarding urbanization and innovation as its independent variables is not deduced by mathematic illation. The mechanism of innovation spillovers and actual effects has not been complished. The roles of human capital and structure change in combing urbanization and economic growth need to study in the future.