The Virtual Economy And Real Economy Deviated From The Degree Of Research

Fictitious economy sector has been swelling in the world up to now, and fictitious economy has great increasing influence upon the real economy. As about the prcing of fictitious capital, the deviation or decoupling of the financial sector from the real economy, and the influence of fictitious economy, these are a series of problem we must face and western economy has no reasonable answers now. While lots of financial crisis have outbroken in the world, many schlors try to solve these academic problems, so I select this frontier subject on decoupling of the fictitious economy from the real economy, and I try to find proof on the connection between modern Industrial Revolution driven by over procduction capacity and explosive growth of fictitious capital in China. And I want to analysize the macroscopical and microscopic aspects of speculative bubbles, and emphatically to discuss the conditions of sustainable development of domestic fictitious economy.This doctoral dissertation begins with the movement of capital, firstly I analylize the movement process among real capital, financial hoarding and fictitious capital, which bring about the formation, expansion and evolvement of fictitious economy. In chpter 3 the paper expounds the theoretical model of dynamic efficiency of real economy and the effect of asset bubble, and discusses the relation of real economy and the fictitious economy. Along with the productivity development, the decouling becomes the normal behaviour. I raise two new conceptions in this charper, which are quantitative decouling and functional decoupling. The quantitative decouling results in functional decoupling and the functional decoupling leads to quantitative decouling more than ever.Then this doctoral dissertation analysizses the influencing factors of decoupling of real economy from the fictitious economy from both macroscopical and microscopic angle in the following two charpers. From the macroscopical angle, I decompose the Price Earnings Ratio, which is taken as the macro index of decoupling. I find that the PER can sensiblely reflect the deviation between the real economy from the fictitious economy and articulately measure the bubble level. Comparatively, I decompose the Financial Interrelation Ratio. I conclude that monetization together with real economy growth is the main driving force of fictitious economy explosion in China, which promote the quantitative decoulping to functional decoupling.From the microscopic angle, I discuss the relations among investor behavior, corporate governance and information, which leads to the speculative bubbles and decoupling. And I analyze the power basis of the process from quantitative decoulping to functional decoupling. Th paper finds that investor behavior with psychological factor has great effects upon irrational bubble, so I specially discuss the influence of investor sentimation upon the fictitious economy inflation.In charpter 7 the paper analyzes the dynamic decoupling of the fictitious economyfrom the real economy. The fundenmentals of real economy can play a leading role upon the stock market. And the real economy has significantly persistent impulse on stock market in China, but Contrarily stock market has no such influnce upon the real economy. After stock-split reform in China, the business barometer of stock market is gradually showing itself. Totally, domestic stock market fluctuates around the real economy growth trend in the long run, but for the present time the stock market deviates from real economy, which results in over volatility or irrational exuberance.Finally, the paper seeks the revelation for the track of the fictitious economy inflation in China, from the classical asset bubble events of other main countries. And I give a preliminary analysis of negaticve shock from the serious decloupling of the fictitious economy from the real economy. So the paper probes into the sustainable conditions of asset bubble in China, escaping from those negative influences.We can conclude from this doctoral dissertation, psychological factor of investor intrisiclly influence the decloupling of the fictitious economy from the real economy, different investors' trading strategies and short termism behaviors promote the expansion of the fictitious capital. And the management of listed companies manipulates the performance and earnings to sustain the asset bubble of their stock price, for their private interests. At present, positive feedback mechanism of domestic investors from their sentimental guidance, become the internal process of asset bubble. The domestic sock market has not fully developed the function of optimal resource allocation and promotiong of real economy, only played a role of wealth redistribution, which leaded to the black hole effect, so the stcok market has merely absorbed the capital from the real economy ,but has not play the proper role.In a word, the sustainable conditions of asset bubble are still not available, after the examination of financial sector and real sector in China. As the techonology develops and capital accumulates, the decloupling of the fictitious economy from the real economy will spirally develop. Before new techonolgy promotes the productivity, the Financial Interrelation Ratio will limit itself to some extent,and the fictitious economy keep sunder the thumb of the real economy. If the fictitious economy deviateed excessively from the real economy, the asset buble would collapse, and return to fundenmentals. In some period, the fictitious economy may dormate the real economy, because the functional decoupling from the quantative decoupling, but after the buble collapse, the real economy dormates again.This paper gives some suggestion upon the development of fictitious economy and real economy. The government regulatory devision should pay attention to the harmonious development between fictitious economy and real economy, and stick up for the sustainable development of speculative bubles .And the government should enhance the regulatory level and intensify investor protection. As about the mfinancila market efficieny, the monetary and fiscal policy should make fine-drawn balance between financial sector and the real sector. And the government should promote the full development of all financial market division...