Research On Potential Evaluation And Investment Decision Making Of Emerging Technology Commercialization

At present, with the rapid development of science and technology, emerging technologies have mushroomed up gradually. Nevertheless, those emerging technologies which can bring huge economic benefits have accounted for only small proportion. Facing this technology pool, which are made up of these numerous emerging enabling technologies, no matter in the theory studying or the activity practices, it has become an important issue that how to identify these emerging technologies with significant commercial potential, and how to carry out these potential ones to commercialization in the best investment threshold condition of decision-making.Supported by the the NSFC key program of Olympic Science industrialization under Grant 70639002, this paper looks up the theory and methods of technology evaluation in abroad and domestic completely, and proposes an emerging technology commercial potential evaluation framework by combining the subjective and objective analysis, another model for two phases investment decision of emerging technology commercialization based on real option is also presented in this paper, and the empirical researches are illustrated separately.At first, this paper gives a detailed discussion on the meaning and feature of emerging technology commercial potential, and has analysis on the principle, target and object of emerging technology commercial potential evaluation from the general methodology angle. Because of the limitation of conventional evaluation method, this paper elaborates some modem technology evaluation methods in system, such as technology future analysis, and technology analysis based on technology information resource and analysis the potential evaluation method choosing mentality of emerging technology commercialization from the two aspects of evaluation technique and data source. According to the above, this paper proposes an integrated framework for emerging technology commercial potential evaluation by combining the subjective and objective judgment.Next, this paper proposes a three filtration appraisal framework of emerging technology commercial potential subjective evaluation, which contain laboratory foundation personnel primary election, the senior expert elected again, and well-chosen based on ANP. The index system of emerging technology commercial potential evaluation is designed by Delphi survey and the corresponding weight are calculated later. All of these can be used as the foundation of expert investigation in the following steps. At first the laboratory foundation personals are asked to filter some "chaos" from the technology pool, then the nominal group method are used by the senior experts to carry on second round of filtration, finally, analytic network process (ANP) is used to carry on the well- chosen for the technologies which gain a high scores in the last second round selection results and the technologies with too much disputation. Besides, ANP method can solve the limitation of conventional AHP well.Third, this paper presents an emerging technology commercial potential objective evaluation framework by combing the technology maturity, technology opportunities and technology status. Only these emerging technologies that has pass through the stage of technology slow crawl and entered the fast development phase can be taken as the preferential consideration objects, and this is the first threshold. For those technologies pass through the first threshold, this paper - analysis the technology opportunities by combining the bibliometrics analysis, morphology analysis and conjoint analysis. Technology opportunities analysis can removes these technologies with low utilities. Technology status in our country is also considered later, all of these can be synthesized to appraisal emerging technology commercial potential.Once more, this paper proposes an emerging technology investment decision making model due to the phase divisibility and uncertainty of emerging technology commercialization. Facing those technologies having gone out the laboratory foundation R&D stage, in order to transform it into product and gain economic profits, we must implement the technology into pilot test phase and commercialization phase. The uncertainty of emerging technology and emerging market consider the flexibility and dynamic for the investment manages, therefore, this paper constructs the emerging technology two stages investments decision making model based on the real option, and an empirical research and sensitive analysis are illustrated in later. This research indicated that, this proposed real option investment decision model can provide each provide the best invest critical point well, and the proposed model also can reveal the influence of investment critical point of each phase due to the parameter change, all of these can be taken for investor as the foundation emerging technology commercial investment decision.At last, taking the emerging technology projects from Olympic Science as empirical research objects, this paper presents an empirical study on emerging technology commercial potential subjective evaluation model, objective judgment model and investment decision model through many times investigation and expert surveies, which not only make sure this research has the theory depth, but also more practice operationally.