Theoretical And Empirical Analysis Of Monetary Policy's Adjustment Of The Investment Scale

This thesis, from both theories and demonstrations, researches the barriers and adjusting effects of the conduct channels, adjusting measures, conducting mechanism of our monetary policy's adjustment on the investment scale, mainly with the basic principles and analyzing methods of western theory of monetary policy and our practice of adjusting the investment scale by monetary policy as well. The purpose of the research is to ameliorate and also optimize the adjusting mechanism of our monetary policy on the investment scale constantly, so that the enterprises are able to understand and follow the monetary policy and a perfect monetary policy effect will be realized.ⅠContents and viewsExcept the introduction, this thesis is made up of five chapters and consists of about one hundred and ten thousand Chinese characters.The first chapter, the exploration on the relationship between monetary policy and the adjustment on the investment scale. The major content of this chapter is on the relationship between the adjustment of monetary policy and investment scale. On one hand, it analyzes that monetary policy is an important policy instrument for the adjustment of macro economy and investment scale, and it also emphasized the outstanding status of monetary policy in the policies of macro economy with pointing that monetary policy instrument must be combined with other policies of macro economy like fiscal policy, industrial policy, land policy and so on. On the other hand, the thesis analyzes the great influence of the change of the investment scale in our macro economy, so that it becomes the key point of the adjustment of macro economy, and also an important target by our monetary policy to adjust. This chapter is the logical beginning of the analysis and research of the whole thesis, since the investment scale has become a key factor in the influence on our macro economy; it is drawing more and more concern。The investment scale is an important target for monetary policy to adjust, and monetary policy is the major way to adjust the investment scale, therefore monetary policy and the investment scale have a strong connection to each other, and there will be both theoretical and practical significances in the research on the mechanism and effect of monetary policy's adjustment on the investment scaleThe second chapter, the theoretic analysis of monetary policy's adjustment on the investment scale. This chapter summarizes the ideas of major genres of monetary policy theories. It emphasizes the major genres of monetary policy's idea on the conducting mechanism of monetary policy, and also analyzes the monetary policy instrument and its features of the central banks in the major countries, especially the channels of interest rate, credit, and assets prices of monetary policy's adjustment on the investment scale in the theory of western monetary policy, and meanwhile, the thesis explores the problem of time lag in the monetary policy's adjustment on the investment scale, it also summarize the experiences of this field in major developed countries, preparing theoretically for the analysis of the conducting mechanism of our present monetary policy.The third chapter, the analysis of the conducting mechanism of our monetary policy's adjustment on the investment scale. It analyzes the typical monetary policy instrument of our central bank, especially the conducting mechanism of our monetary policy's adjustment on the investment scale, and it also points that the channel of credit is the major one in the conduct of our monetary policy for the connatural features of our financial structure. With this logic, the thesis points that the changes of commercial bank actions has an extremely important effect on the conduct of monetary policy. It also analyzes the new situation of the financial market development in recent years, pointing that the channel of interest rate and assets price are playing a more and more important role in the conduct of monetary policy as the development of financial market, including money market and assets market, and the rapid development of the market of real estate.The fourth chapter, the research of our monetary policy's adjustment on the investment scale(2003-2006). Firstly, this chapter analyzes the background of the latest macro adjustment with the way of positivism. This macro adjustment began at 2003; an apparent feature of our economy around 2003 is that the investment increased very rapidly. Secondly, it analyzes the major monetary policy measures adopted in this macro adjustment, and it also researches the main features of those measures. To analyze the monetary policy's adjustment on investment, the thesis analyzes the measures and effect of the monetary policy's adjustment on the investment of real estate. At last, this chapter has a comment on the effect of the monetary policy's adjustment on investment scale, figuring that the effect of adjustment is not great, and it still needs ameliorating.The fifth chapter is on the barriers to the monetary policy's adjustment on investment scale and the countermeasures. On the basis of the analysis in the fourth chapter, this chapter analyzes the 7 reasons why the effect of our monetary policy's adjustment on investment scale is so small, and it puts forward policy proposals of 3 aspects. In this macro adjustment, the monetary policy carries on adjustment of small range, high consistency and high compositionality. And the effect of adjustment on investment scale is quite small. This economic overheating is mainly caused by local governments, local governments strongly drives the increase of investment, mainly the investment of real estate. Since the pressure, caused by our long-term favorable balance, for RMB to increase in value, has had a great impact upon our monetary policy, the policy is not able to operate in its own way. After reformation, the state-owned commercial banks have gradually established their market mechanism. For the maximized profit, their intentions to contest the monetary policy's adjustment of central bank are getting stronger and stronger, and the phenomena of contest is also getting more and more apparent. From the aspect of enterprise, the faultiness of modern enterprise system, the lack of modern financing ideas and scientific investment decision-making are the reasons why enterprises are not able to understand and follow the adjustment of monetary policy. And besides, the lag of development of money market, the interest rate market under reformation and the independence of central bank under influence are also reasons why the effect of monetary policy's adjustment on enterprises is so small. Against the problems in the 7 aspects, the thesis puts forward policy proposals in the end, to achieve a better effect of the monetary policy's adjustment on investment scale.ⅡThe major innovations in the thesisThe innovations of this thesis are mainly in following aspects:1. With the analyzing tool of western financial theory, the thesis analyzes the feature that the sensibility of dynamic investment decision-making of enterprise is stronger than that of static one to monetary policy, and it explains why the conducting efficiency of monetary policy's adjustment on investment is so low from the aspect of enterprise, so that it offers theoretic foundation for the increasing of the effect of monetary policy's adjustment.2. It analyzes the changes of commercial bank actions after reformation with game theory, pointing that commercial banks have strengthened goals of profit after the reformation. As the managing mechanism and actions gets more and more market-oriented, they have a latent conflict to the goal of monetary policy, and this conflict will affect the monetary policy's adjustment on investment scale, therefore, the influence brought by the contest of commercial banks must be considered when carrying out monetary policy, to achieve a better effect of monetary policy's adjustment.3. It breaks the tradition that many scholars researched the effect of monetary policy's adjustment on investment scale from macro aspect, and it suggests that the macro adjustment department should have more communication with micro individuals; especially it should pay more attention to the reaction and adjustment of action of the individuals to macro policy, so that the way of the conduct of macro policy's adjustment can be ameliorated.4. It analyzes that the rapid increase of investment is impelled by local government, pointing that the development of state-owned enterprises has entered a new era after the finish of last reformation of state-owned enterprises, and the new reformation of local state-owned enterprises must be accelerated. The management of local state-owned enterprises should be confined reasonably, and the establishment and operation of market-oriented mechanism should be impelled.5. According to the researching results of the thesis, the countermeasures and proposals, and on monetary policy's adjustment on investment scale are put forward.