Research On Investment Project Economic Appraisal Based On Multiple Attribute Decision-Making

The traditional project appraisal theory is in pursuit of profit maximization according to the sole economic consideration of investors, and there are still some shortcomings and defects in theoretical study, that is, full rational assumptions, incomplete defined information, fuzzy information processing distortion, social and environmental assessment neglect, static evaluation, and individual arbitrary decision-making.From the perspective of system theory, investment project can be regarded as an open complex system projects in a certain region, which is made up of four sub-systems, i.e., the project value subsystem, the project economic subsystem, the project social subsystem, and the project ecological subsystem.In the meanwhile, this investment project complex system is influenced by three-dimension environments, i.e., the information environment, the time sequence environment, and the estimator environment. The multiattribute of both internal structure and environment of invest project complex systems requires that investment project economic appraisal should also be based on multiple-attribute decision making. From the above considerations, this dissertation establishes a set of multi-attribute economic evaluation index system, which provides a new theoretical background and approach framework for the project economic evaluation. In use of the evaluation index system, this dissertation studies the investment project economic appraisal in terms of the project information environment, the project time sequence environment, as well as the project estimator environment.In the project information environment, this dissertation first focuses on the quantification of the project qualitative indexes and the standardization of the project quantitative indexes. For the weight solving, this dissertation brings forward subjective and objective methods for certain information cases, fuzzy-language-based and FAHP approaches for uncertain information dimension, and introduces domestic research results into the project economic evaluation especially for incomplete and totally uncertain information context; On evaluation methods, this dissertation proposes linear weighted sum method and TOPSIS for certain information scenario, on the other hand, discusses possibility analysis method and fuzzy TOPSIS for uncertain information scenario, in particular, offers"average point method"for totally uncertain information context.In the project time sequence environment, this dissertation compares invest projects from the perspective of the integration of the gross benefits and the incremental benefits in a chosen period, and hence selects out the satisfactory project. Specifically speaking, real weight and fuzzy weight sequential economic evaluation are discussed. Real weight sequential economic evaluation can be completed by applying linear weighted sum method and data envelopment analysis (DEA), while fuzzy weight sequential economic evaluation can be achieved by using possibility analysis method and interval data envelopment analysis (IDEA).In the project estimator environment, for the sake of using collective wisdom and avoiding the impact of individual preferences on decision-making, group multiple attribute economic appraisal is explored. The main contents are as follows: how the weight of experts including real weight and fuzzy weight is solved; what to do with different forms of evaluation outcomes according to different preferences of experts; how to carry out group multiple attribute economic appraisal, introducing two kinds of approaches, that is, ranking projects before group decision-making method and ranking projects after group decision-making method.Finally, this dissertation analyzes the possible six combinations of investment project information environment, project time sequence environment, project estimator environment, and explores the correlations of different project environment combinations, on the basis of which, the following part of the dissertation brings forward the approaches of choosing different multiple attribute project economic appraisal decision-making and also the specific economic appraisal process.