| China's economy has made significant progress since the reform and opening-up, however, it has also been faced with the problems of the cyclical fluctuation and economic instability at the same time.In this dissertation, the new characteristics of China's business cycle are studied, followed by the analyses of the reasons and effects of it. It will be no doubt of significance in both theory and practice for us to recognize the objective regularity of economic fluctuations, to grasp the developing trend of economy in the operation, to take the macroeconomic control with proper way in order to maintain the continuation stability and coordination of the national economic development.This dissertation mensurates and measures off the China's business cycle since the reform. In 1978~2005, China's economy has experienced five phases which are 1978~1982, 1983~1986, 1987~1991, 1992~2002 and 2003~2005 respectively. The economy is in the expansion phase of this new cycle now. And then, the general and structural characteristics of China's business cycle since the reform are studied, using the relative methods of statistics and econometrics. The result shows that, as a whole, the economic growth is characterized by"stability strengthening, volatility reducing, and the length of cycle elongating". The characteristic of cyclical fluctuation has changed from"big up and big down"as before to"high-mild". About the structural characteristics, the secondary industry and the eastern region are the main determinants which drive the national economic fluctuation all the time.The dissertation studies the exterior shock determinants, which drive China's cyclical economic fluctuation, in three angles of AD shocks, AS shocks and international shocks. It also studies the effect of these shocks to the economy. Many time series analytical methods are used. The result shows that the fluctuations in investment are the main reason for China's macroeconomic fluctuation in the three determinants of AD. In the determinants of AS, the influences of capital shocks and total factor productivity (TFP) shocks on GDP fluctuation are lasting. Thereinto, the influence and contribution of capital shocks to GDP fluctuation are bigger, which means that China's economic growth and fluctuation are mostly driven by the mass input of capital. China's economic growth mode is still the extensive growth mode.System transition is one of the exterior shocks which influence China's economy most profoundly and permanently. Institutional innovation is the main reason for smoothing China's economic fluctuations. Along with economic opening up and transition, it seems that the business cycle of China is gradually in pace with that of the world and the major trading countries. In the future, China's economy is going to open up more and more. Therefore, it should pay more attention to international shocks transmitted by foreign trade and foreign capital. Furthermore, the functions of policy cannot be ignored during the course of China's economic fluctuation. The macroeconomic control becomes mature gradually after carrying out policy combination several times. Our fiscal policy has the function of"Automatic Stabilizer", and it is propitious to reduce economic cyclical fluctuation. The effect of monetary policy on economy performs asymmetrical. The effect of retrenchable monetary policy, which has the function of reducing real output remarkably, is stronger than the effect of outspread monetary policy, which has the function of promoting real output. To the contribution of the economic policy shocks to macroeconomic fluctuation, it is easier for monetary policy to drive economic fluctuation. Therefore, it needs to be more cautious for using it. To the fiscal policy, the regulating effect of revenue should be played more efficiently.In summary, China's business cycle and fluctuation is the result by the function of many determinants together. In the short run, AD shocks'effects are more remarkable, while in the long run, AS shocks have persistent effects. Otherwise, with the deepening of economic globalization, the relationship between China and the world economy is more and more relevant, thus more attentions should be paid to international shocks.
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