Research On The Correlation Between Economic Cycle Fluctuation And Industrial Structure Change In China

Industrial structure change, which is an unfailing topic in the economists, is generally regarded by economists as the result of economic growth at different historical stages and meanwhile has stimulative or restrictive effects on the latter. As an important form of socioeconomic movement, economic cycle fluctuation is the concrete modality of overall economic growth, and has attracted wide public concerns among theorists both at home and abroad since commodity economy appeared characterized by mass production by machines. Generally speaking, researches on economic cycle fluctuation and on industrial structure change are carried on respectively, even if there are a few studies on the relationship between the two, the research techniques and results of which have a great number of divergences, but they all agree that industrial structure change is the endogenous process of economic fluctuation, and that the two have some important relationships.Under such circumstances, based on those existing researches, this dissertation makes a further research that the interactional relationship between economic fluctuation and industrial structure change is embodied as the correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change by using data in China. By the way of theory of system economics and modern econometrics and so on, we firstly ascertain the granger causality relationship between the economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China at the macroscopic point of view, then analyse the industrial structure change during all previous business cycle stages and investigate the effect of industrial structure change to economic cycle fluctuation. Afterward it shows the main linkages of China's economic cycle fluctuation and the industrial structure change. In the end, we propose some countermeasures about how to realize sound and rapid macroeconomic growth accompanied by the optimization of the industrial structure.First of all, we present a summary about the theoretical foundation and associated literature on economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change. Through the analysis on the relationship between macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change, we conclude that the phases of business cycle theory, the theory of industrial structure evolution are the basic theories of this dissertation, while the theory on economic long wave and industrial structure evolvement, and system economics are the directly theoretical sources and foundations. The overview of related literature from home and aboard is organized as the following three aspects: at first, we summarize the relationship of economic fluctuation and industrial structure change in the era of industry economy, then analyze the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in the age of new economy, finally epitomize the related literature on economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China.Secondly, we ascertain relationship between the economic cycle fluctuation and the industrial structure change in China from the macroscopic point of view, and [0]find that China's economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change have interactive granger causality relationship. After the intuitively descriptive statistic analysis on the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China, we construct indices of economic cycle fluctuation and of industrial structure change respectively, based on which we also make a granger causality test on China's economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change. The granger causality test and dynamic econometric analysis both show that China's economic cycle fluctuation is a significant factor that affects industrial structure change, meanwhile China's industrial structure change has a significant impact on economic cycle fluctuation, to which the influence coefficient humps up to striking 0.6115.Thirdly, we make a further discussion on the industrial structure change at all previous business cycle stages, and conclude that China's economic cycle fluctuation affects not only macro three industrial structure change, but also the internal structure change of various industrial sectors in"three industry", besides, such effects are mainly showed in these ways: the rhythmic contraction and expansion of macroeconomy renders the coupled direction and changing intensity of three industrial structure and its industrial sectors internal structure. Furthermore, we make a concrete analysis connected with the experience and the fact of different historical periods in China.Next, this dissertation explores the effect of industrial structure change on economic cycle fluctuation in China from the perspective of empirical analysis. After recognizing the contributions of our country's three macro industries and their main industrial sectors to economic growth fluctuation, we investigate the co-movement effect and asymmetric effect of China's industrial structure change on economic cycle fluctuation by ways of modern econometric methods. Finally we also analyze the effect of China's industrial sectors internal structure change on economic cycle fluctuation through VAR model.In the end, We explores the linkages between China's economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change from the theoretical angle, in other words, in the theoretical perspective, we analyze the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change. Based on the experiences and the facts about the interaction of economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China, we think that"'income-consumption'mechanism","'interest rate-investment'mechanism","'technology-structure oriented'mechanism"and"'international trade-international finance'mechanism"are the major transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change. Furthermore, during variant phases of business cycle in different historical periods in China, the four major linkages play different roles, but they usually contribute to collective functions.The theoretical merit lies in its trying to explore the correlation of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change preliminarily, and to put forward the theoretical foundations and intermediary linkage mechanisms of overall economy and middle industrial structure economy. As far as middle industrial structure is concerned, it has a certain degree of theoretical meaning to seek for macroeconomic theoretical foundation, so as to integrate overall economy theory and structure economy theory organicly. While the practical value of this dissertation is that it attempts to study systematically the correlation of economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China from the qualitative and quantitative angles during the years from 1953 to 2007. The result of this research shows that there is a granger causality correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China, which is very meaningful for realization industrial structure's healthy couple and sound & rapid macroeconomic growth simultaneously under the leadership of scientific outlook on development.