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Research On Emerging Technology Enterprise's Credit Risk Evaluation Method

Posted on:2010-05-15Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119360275980032Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
In market economy, economic activities linked by the credit, credit has become animportant market instrument of modern society and the essential lubricant of economy.Credit risk is a risk that a borrower will be unable to make payment of interest orprincipal in a timely manner.Since 20th century 90's, some emerging technologies such as the Internet,biotechnology, new materials, etc, represent the most advanced productivity. With thepace of technological innovation, emerging technologies playing an increasinglyimportant role in economic development, and as the overall socio-economic sustainabledevelopment of important power.Emerging technology enterprises have some features such as huge fundingrequirements, strong market expansion and uncertain operating efficiency, and so on.At the same time, the development of emerging technology companies are restrictedwith the life cycle of emerging technologies, technology maturity, market capacity andother factors.Therefore,compared with the general traditional enterprises, emergingtechnology enterprises face greater uncertainty in the management, administration,product market, and many other aspects. Today, there are more and more emergingtechnology enterprises, Banks, financial institutions and other enterprises may havevarious lending or credit transactions with emerging technologies enterprises. So creditrisk will remain in emerging technology companies throughout the entire developmentprocess, and along with the growth of enterprises. It can be seen that scientificevaluation credit risk of emerging technology enterprises will not only help tostandardize the production and management of enterprises and promote the sustainedand healthy development, but also will greatly improve investment and financingchannels and reduce the cost of credit transactions for the emerging technologyenterprises.How to measure and evaluate the credit risk of emerging technology enterpriseshas become an academic and practical concern to the forefront of the hot spots and questions, but also one of the problems of modern credit risk management.Altman,Hartzell and Peck (1995,1997) study the credit risk of emerging markets enterprises(which was mainly against the U.S. dollar bonds issued in Europe, Mexico enterprises).Based on the traditional model, and combination of enterprises, industry characteristics,operating environment, build a credit risk score model of the emerging marketsenterprises.According to the industry characteristics of enterprises, as well as its operation anddevelopment of the larger uncertainties, this paper research on following aspects ofemerging technologies enterprise credit risk assessment methods.Firstly, this paper will study the main factors of impact of emerging technologyenterprises' credit risk from a number of factors, and to set up emerging technologyenterprise credit risk evaluation index system, this work is the foundation of correctevaluation of emerging technology enterprise's credit risk.Because the survival anddevelopment of emerging technology enterprises due to its innovation and newtechnology application ability, therefore, innovation and new technology applicationability are the most fundamental power of emerging technologies enterprise survivaland development. It directly reflects the enterprises to understand, development, andapplication ability of emerging technologies, but also the sustainable development of itscore competitiveness.For more scientific and reasonable evaluation credit risk ofemerging technology enterprises, this paper regard innovation and new technologyapplication ability as an important indicator of credit risk of emerging technologiesenterprise, and take it into the emerging technology enterprise's credit risk evaluationindex system. This paper use entropy weight and gray clustering method to evaluateinnovation and new technology application ability of emerging technology enterprises,And combined with the traditional financial indicators and rough set theory, finally, setup emerging technology enterprise's credit risk evaluation index system.Secondly, because credit risk changes in emerging technology enterprise are morefrequent than the general enterprise, therefore, evaluation credit risk of emergingtechnologies enterprise should be able to better portray the dynamic characteristics ofcredit risk changing. According to the the dynamic characteristics of credit risk,thispaper proposed a class of emerging technologies enterprise credit risk assessmentmethod based a random combination credit evaluation (RCCE) methods. Given in a number of time points and a variety of methods, RCCE evaluate the credit risk ofemerging technology enterprise, overcome only in a single (static) time points.Furthermore, this paper proof the necessary and sufficient condition for optimumcombination of weight of RCCE.Thirdly, according to the dynamic characteristics of credit risk and credit riskassessment of multi-dimensional indicators, this paper invoke methods of geometricalanalysis and optimization technology to study emerging technology enterprise's creditspace structure. This paper put forth the conceptions of credit dimensions, credit statuesspace (CSS),ε-identical credit status andε-pseudo identical credit status etc, andmultidimensional dynamic credit evaluation (MDCE). Separately on the discrete-timeand continuous-time, this paper build emerging technologies enterprise's CSS, andanalyze the CSS. At last, by application of spatial analysis methods and optimizationtechniques to evaluate the credit risk of emerging technology enterprise.Fourthly, based on the characteristics of enterprise development, this paper usestochastic analysis techniques to measure the credit risk of emerging technologyenterprises that are the loss of status until maturity of the debt, and get a defaultprobability formula.Based on the characteristics of emerging technology enterprise and their credit riskthan the average enterprise has a greater uncertainty, this paper start a series of studieson credit risk evaluation methods. Firstly, take innovation and new technologyapplication ability as one of credit risk evaluation index, and study the CSS. Further,based on RCCE and MDCE theory, this paper develop some credit risk evaluationmethods from different views. Finally, in view of a certain representation of certainspecial emerging technology companies, put forward a measure of its probability ofdefault. In this paper, the results of research on not only at the theoretical level toexplore new and emerging technologies to evaluate the theory of corporate credit riskframework, but in practice level, from different ways to evaluate emerging technologiesto businesses in several categories of credit risk.
Keywords/Search Tags:Emerging technology enterprise, Credit risk, RCCE, MDCE, Default probability
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