Study On Generation Investment Analysis And Generation Operation Reliability In Deregulated Electricity Industry

The marketization of electricity power industry brings profound and significant changes for the construction, operation and consumption of power systems. The competition mechanism in power market environment greatly influences the technical execution of generation investment planning and reliability assessment. Particularly, the alteration of investment subjects and the request of market mechanisms lead to the transform from minimizing the investment and operation costs to maximizing the investors' profit in generation investment decision, the applicability of many evaluation methods used in traditional reliability assessment under market environment are also doubted. In power market, generation plays an important role, because the decision schemes of investment subjects will affect the benefit of each participator in the market, and the security of power system at the same time.In this thesis, generation investment and operation reliability assessment of generation system problems are studied systematically, and some results are obtained as following:The electricity price model based on stochastic process in spot market is established. According to the analysis of characteristcs of spot market prices, stochastic differential equations are adopted for the description of the stochastic process of spot market electricity prices. The model can reflect special physical characteristics of electricity prices, such as seasonality, volatility and price jumps. The stochastic differential equations and sample path for geometric mean reversion process are emphatically derived.Profit and risk evaluation of generator in spot market is studied. The value of the generation asset is determined by the accumulation of difference between the electricity price and fuel price in the life time of generator. Additionally, the force outage of generators and risk-less return rate are taken into account in the proposed model. For the consideration of the influence of operation constraints on generator profit, the basic model is modified. Monte Carlo simulation and Optimal Power Flow are used to solve the model to get the distribution of generator profit, and so that investment risk can be assessed.The model for the profit estimation of Generation Company in long-term bilateral contract is presented. The model is consisted of several sub-models, like force outage of generators, negotiated contract price, variable fuel costs, and investment depreciation. The effects of congestion charge and financial transmission rights on the profit are specially investigated. The negotiated contract price is derived based on the no-arbitrage principle. The point estimation method and Monte Carlo simulation are implemented for the solving of proposed model to adapt different computation demand.The generation investment risk assessment and portfolio investment problems are investigated. A "composite mixture-box" distribution is defined. Based on the concept of Worst-case Value at Risk, a robust portfolio investment model for generation asset is derived. The analytical linear programming model for generation portfolio investment in multiple power markets is established and the solution is also provided.Coherent risk measure based operation reliability index for generation system and its optimization model are established. Two novel reliability indices, named as Reserve at Risk and Conditional Reserve at Risk, are defined for operation of generation system. The mathematic characteristics are discussed and proved. CRaR is a coherent risk measure. A performance function is proposed, by maximizing which the level of Reserve at Risk and Conditional Reserve at Risk can be obtained. The optimization model of Conditional Reserve at Risk is proved to be a convex optimal problem. Example is offered to analyze the application of proposed model.New reliability indices are applied to discuss operation reliability problems of generation systems with renewable energy. To adapt generation system operation, the traditional Loss of Load Probability model is modified. An analytical active power output model for wind power generator is presented, based on which the influence of introduction of renewable generators into traditional generation systems on operation reliability is analyzed.Finally, conclusions are made for the work in this thesis, and directions for future research are indicated.