The Prospective Analysis On Macroeconomic Operation In China

Since the reform and opening-up, China's sustained economic growth, making a way upward curve, especially in the Tenth Five-Year period. After the 8%-7%'s adjustment during 1998-2001, the macro-economic has a success of a soft landing. It has been entered the expansion phase of economic cycle since 2002. When the economy grows rapid at the same time, the total supply capacity of the community greatly enhanced. The pattern of economic growth needs to be bound by the supply constraints and also the lack of demand has become the main factors of China's economic growth. With the high economic growth, economic structure is gradually highlighting the various contradictions: It has low demand for final consumption and expansion of investment demand. The total savings of the national economy is greater than the size of the total investment and the domestic aggregate demand is less than total supply. It also appears the balance of payments "double surplus". These problems show the structure of China's macro-economic is imbalances. It is necessary for us to think whether these structural imbalances in the economy as, or hinder the further economic development.On the one hand, the total domestic economic imbalance between supply and demand, on the other hand, the international economic environment has changed dramatically. In mid-2007, U.S. sub-loan crisis gradually evolved into a global financial crisis and China's economy increased significantly in mid-2008. The world economic growth was rapid decline. According to the World Bank predicted, in 2009 the world's economic growth rate was only 0.5%. Especially in September, the situation came to a standstill, the adverse effects on China's apparent increase. China's government introduced a variety of financial crisis and economic stimulus package. These programs are to achieve "security 8" of the economic growth target. Faced with the complex economic situation, we must look at the current financial crisis on the domestic economy and the structure of the total impact of the operation of the future trajectory of China's economic changes, a variety of economic contradictions will run as the economy and automation solutions, how to assess the crisis of China's macro-economic policies to deal with the results; Faced with this range of issue, this dissertation draw on the ideas and methods of financial Programming and under the guidance of this idea for forward-looking macro-economic analysis to make policy choices."Financial Programming" refers to a certain extent in order to achieve the macro-economic objectives of a set of comprehensive development and continuity of economic measures, improving the process of configuration of a country. Financial Programming process for the national macroeconomics issues to constitute the effective economic and financial policies, Aiming at the rational use of productive potential, promote economic growth, control of government budget deficit within reasonable limits. As far as possible to reduce the level of domestic prices and exchange rate pressures, and produce the expected results of the international balance of payments, thus ensuring the stability of the economy continued to grow. Financial Programming initially assisted to the International Monetary Fund in countries in economic difficulties of macro-economic policy. In the long-term discovering, financial Programming ideas can be used not only poor and backward country, but also can be used for other types of country analysis of macroeconomic forecasting research and contradictions of its economic structure. Financial Programming of a country concerned about the domestic economy and foreign economic links department, concerned about the balance between the economic structure with special attention to a country's aggregate demand and aggregate supply balance. All of these had the practical significance on China's macroeconomic analysis of financial crisis. Financial Programming concerned about the national economy macroeconomic aggregate demand and aggregate supply imbalance and other issues. Through the development of effective macro-economic regulation and control the structure of economic financial policies, it is to achieve the national economy overall balance between supply and demand. Then produce the expected results of the international balance of payments to ensure economic stability, sustained growth. The idea of financial Programming improve macroeconomic management of China's science and decision-making power and have practical significance, for analyze the our country's further macro-economic trends, problems to provide a new way of thinking.The dissertation is composed of 4 parts. Part one is introduction. Part two includes Chapter I- Chapter II for the theoretical explanations; Part three includes Chapter III -Chapter VI for the empirical part. For the last part of Chapter VII states the policy recommendations. Introduction will be mainly discussed the background and significance of topics and research methods, the financial Programming at home and abroad on research and evaluation the status of introduction. Part two is the basic theory of financial Programming and macroeconomic forecasting methods on the system, including financial Programming content, macroeconomic forecasting and financial Programming. Part three is the core content of this dissertation. Based on financial Programming ideas, inspection of the financial Programming assumptions China's macroeconomic forecast model on the basis of 2009-2012.. China's future trends in the macroeconomic fundamentals, the impact of financial crisis and the effects of policies to expand domestic demand have been forecast and analysis. For the last part of the problem of economic operation, the economic crisis facing the impact of proposed policy recommendations. In various parts of the study, this dissertation has done innovative work includes:(1)This current study is the first time for financial Programming on thinking of the International Monetary Fund conducted a comprehensive carding. In this dissertation, a comprehensive exposition of financial Programming, methods, steps, such as the theoretical basis on the analysis of the financial Programming of the theoretical and practical significance. The way has enriched macro-economic analysis of China's scientific decision-making system and the national economy.(2)According to the idea of the International Monetary Fund, it needs some preconditions for financial Programming. The precondition is the core of effective monetary policies. In this dissertation, a chapter is devoted to produce, test, and prove the implementation of China's preconditions for financial Programming, which is an unprecedented research.(3)According to the idea of financial Programming, it has been set the analysis of China's financial Programming model. To determine the model exogenous variables, endogenous variables, in which endogenous variables including GDP, the total savings of 22 variables. These are of concern to the financial Programming of the main macroeconomic variables to further the basis of financial Programming. It reflected the economic growth, the domestic aggregate supply, aggregate demand relations, the international balance of payments and other important changes in the structure of the macroeconomic fundamentals.(4)With modern econometric methods it has been built on the analysis of the financial Programming model. to conduct a series of tests, and ultimately the establishment of China's financial Programming analysis, error correction model (VEC) model.(5)In this dissertation, predicted the future trend of China's economic benchmark program through the VEC's financial Programming models since 1990 on China's macro-economic performance analysis. It has a forward-looking analysis the external shocks our financial crisis by using the model analysis. It also has to deal with the crisis on China's macro-economic policies and assess policy options for the future conduct a simulation analysis.Through the minds of China's economy forward-looking analysis, the dissertation has some main conclusions:(1)According to China's macroeconomic growth path in 1990-2007, China's economic growth will be maintained at around 11% growth rate in the next year of 2009-2012. However, there are still many problems: macro-economic structural imbalance, lack of consumption, the total supply and demand in a huge gap, the existence of a huge international payments surplus.(2)Financial crisis slowed down China's economic growth rate by reducing external demand for China's foreign trade and foreign direct investment in the supply of funds between the economic imbalances. Because of lack of consumer demand, export demand and the decline in demand for foreign investment has further exacerbated the shortage of aggregate demand. If our government does not take any policy measures to deal with the crisis and countries in the world are lack of effective macro-economic policies, the world economy will be difficult to recover in the next few years. Financial crisis will lead to decline the China's economic growth rate, and also annual economic growth rate of 2009-2012 is only 5.09%, 5.73%, 5.33% and 6.65%.(3) Government's "4 million million" program focus on the expansion of domestic investment of foreign capital to make up for the decline in the gap. By increasing investment, it can stimulate economic growth and realize "security 8" economic goals. But the expansion of domestic investment of foreign capital cannot fundamentally improved macroeconomic structure. If the international economic situation continued to worsen, the economic growth in China will be difficult to ensure sustain.This dissertation was first introduced the ideological and financial Programming of China's macro-economic. The preparation of the financial Programming should be set up a complete system on macro-economic statistics. China's current macro-economic statistics have not been perfect. In addition to the established system of national accounts, the rest of the statistical system is still not perfect and the time is also relatively short. Thus, it is difficult to establish a prediction model to meet the data requirements. It is well known that data is based on the model which can make the basis quantized. This study faced many difficulties, because the macro-economic statistics system is incomplete and time is limited.