Research On The Over-Growth Of China's Tax Revenue

Since the reform on tax system inl994, the growth rate of Chinese tax revenue has been exceeded macro-economy' s growth rate for more than a decade. According to the principle of which economies decide tax revenue while tax revenue feeds back to economies, this phenomenon is difficult to explain by economic theory, but it is an indisputable fact. Since the beginning of the 20th century, the phenomenon of tax revenue growth continued surpasses GDP growth has attracted wide attention from government, academic community, with regards to the cause of this phenomenon, whether is reasonable and the impact of economies always has controversy. The focus of the contention is focused on whether the growth of tax revenue is over-growth, both sides of the argument, each stick to their own version and still no final conclusion.In this thesis, absorption in the latest research results, background is the revenue of Chinese economic development and the actual situation growth of tax revenue, screening and analysis of a large amount data of the tax revenue and macro-economy, combining with qualitative and quantitative research methods, focusing on Chinese over-growth of the tax revenue to do a in-depth research and analysis. In the course of research, we analysis about the following issues: the formation of tax revenues continuing surpasses GDP growth? What' s the function of tax revenues growth to the economic growth? Tax revenues continuing surpass GDP growth normal? How to maintain revenue growth rate will help China's economic growth? These problems not only for how to determine the nature of our tax revenue growth, but also involve a series of important theoretical issues between economic growth and tax revenue growth, but also will have a profound impact of Chinese fiscal' s policy options and institutional arrangements revenue in the future. Focus on these major issues, this paper has the basic framework of ideas as follows:1,Introduction. It is the basic work of this study. Including: First, through bring out questions to give a short presentation and content of the background of the study; second, introduce this paper' s structure and main contents and the creative of this thesis.2,The theoretical study of Domestic revenue growth. Formulated the relevant theories and models between tax and economic growth, analysis and comment on them, present the research of tax increase and analysis mode.3,Describe the background and thread of thought of phenomenon which tax revenues continuing surpass GDP growth, summing up the characteristics and rules of Chinese tax revenues increase from 1994 to 2008. And System Analysis the formation mechanism of tax revenue growth, that is, analysis of several key factors, including economic factors, policy factors and tax administration factors which in the role of tax revenue growth, as well as how to play a role to led the high growth. In this thesis, analysis the tax revenue growth reason by both the facts and data, this analysis discard the simple previous quantitative analysis or simple facts analysis, but combine the two facts close together, this explain is a big improve of the reason of tax revenues increase.4,For the problem of tax revenue growth extent is difficult to quantify, this thesis selected the macro-tax burden and the limit tax burden which two most representativeness of tax revenue growth, establish the model of our tax revenue , country economic and major economic indicators, to analyze the influence of tax continued high-speed growth for the economy, through the empirical examination proving the tax continued high-speed growth has negative effect at economic growth, thereby educe our tax revenue is in a state of extraordinary growth. In the past, our scholars also done some research about whether our tax revenue growth is over-growth, but the way of this research is about the average level of tax revenue growth in a period, which can' t embody the behavioral characteristics, but the national Economy carrying capacity for the tax revenue growth is behavioral change also. So the conclusions of previous studies can not make accurate judgments for the over-growth of tax revenue. In this thesis using the variable method of parameter estimation of dynamic optimal tax model, it is estimated that Chinese macro tax burden level of a reasonable dynamic range, and to distinguish between different periods of time as normal revenue growth and the extraordinary growth of the basic criteria. This can confirm in the years 1994-2008, the tax appears the phenomenon of extraordinary growth in start-up phase, duration and trends.5,Take a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to predict tax revenue growth in the future years. First analysis the influence of global financial crisis in our country for macro-economic trends, the impact of revenue growth, economic factors, policy factors, as well as collection and management factors are major changes; re-use of measurement models to predict in the next few years, the growth rate of the tax; to predict the results the basis of summing up more than 10 years, the cyclical nature of the tax laws of growth and, in this based on extraordinary revenue growth continue to make final judgments.The concluded of this study:1,After the tax reform in 1994, Chinese tax revenue growth rate of average annual GDP growth rate is nearly 2 times, the root causes are three main factors: the economic factors, policy factors, and collection and management factors.2,Negative effects of tax revenue growth continued surpass GDP growth is more and more clear. Through the tax and the national economy as well as the major economic indicators of the econometric model analysis, get the conclusion: there is at this stage of China's extraordinary revenue growth, its commitment to curb the effectiveness of economic growth significantly. However, state revenue growth is not extraordinary throughout the years of 1994-2008 has, in particular: the maximization of economic growth from the point of view, appears extraordinary revenue growth in 2003 and has continued so far; to maximize the tax revenue from the perspective of analysis of the level of China's macro tax burden starting in 2005 to enter the Laffer curve, the "tax forbidden area " then the tax revenue growth is in the extraordinary growth.3,The predict consequences the tax revenue growth showed that tax revenue in 2009 is expected to 6013. 53 billion yuan, increased 12. 2 percent; in 2010 to 6827. 22 billion yuan, increased 14.1 percent. From the beginning of the end of 2008 revenue growth in China is basically in decline, the tax is about to enter a round of the contraction phase of growth cycle. The growth of tax revenue is about to from peak to trough change, indicates that lasted a few years the tax will end the phenomenon of extraordinary growth. In addition, the optimal revenue growth from the perspective of the path analysis, it is assumed that the national economy in the next few years will keep 8% -9% growth rate, then the revenue growth rate of 12% -15% range to maintain macro-tax burden can be basic and dynamic optimal tax coincidence curve. And predicted revenue growth rate of the next two years precisely in this range, indicating the growth of tax revenue is moving closer to the optimal growth path, and gradually achieve a balanced tax and economic sustainable growth.Tax Revenue over-growth is a complexly theoretical and practical problem, involving a lot of the contents, is a difficult task to do a comprehensive and thorough research. In addition, penman little talent and less learning, although I work hard, still have a lot of weak points in the article. For example: First, the study of theory is not sufficient, especially for contemporary Western economists' latest research studies of tax revenue problem is not particularity enough. Refer to literatures at home and abroad are not systematic. Second, because the difficulties of collection of statistical data and differences of calculation methods have a certain extent affected the depth of analysis. The optimal path of tax revenue of China' s economic growth has yet to be studied further. Third, the second half of 2008 the economic situation changes, increased the difficulty of future analysis and predict of tax revenue growth, the forecasting has inevitable errors. All of these and so on are all looking forward to the criticism of experts, in order to do deepen research and exploration in the future.