Analysis Of Electricity Demand Fluctuations Based On Kydland Economic Cycle Theory

Power demand is a derived demand. The development and changes of the national economy directly determine the changes of the electricity demand. There is a strong positive correlation between the development of the electric power industry and fluctuations of national economy. The facts also showed that Chinese power demand is in the state of cyclical fluctuations. Only by mastering the main influencing factors of power demand fluctuations that the right investment decisions could be made and the healthy development of the electric power industry could be promoted.This paper makes a systematic presentation about Kydland economic cycle theory and model at first, and demonstrates the origin and development of Kydland Business Cycle Theory, and introduces Kydland economic cycle model. Meanwhile this paper compares Kydland economic cycle theory with traditional economic cycle theory in detail and finds the differences between the two, in order to lay a solid theoretical foundation for future application. Secondly, this paper analyzes the demand situation of electric power in China's 1978-2008 year period, and then decomposes the fluctuation cycle of electric power demand in China:Firstly, this paper divides the time series of electric power demand into trend component, cycle component, seasonal component and random fluctuations. And then it researches the decomposition methods of trend component and cycle component. Finally, it makes HP filter and BP filter decompositions of China's electric power demand cycle and the characteristics of the electric power demand cycle based on HP filter and BP filter decompositions are analyzed.On the basis of the studies above, the research on the cycle fluctuations characteristics of consumption and trade and investment was carried on. A comparison between final consumption periodic component and periodic component of net export and investment periodic component and power demand growth rate periodic component was made. At the same time, the study on the cycle fluctuations characteristics of capital and labor and total factor productivity was carried on. A comparison between capital periodic component and periodic component of labor and total factor productivity periodic component and power demand growth rate periodic component was made. The influences of factor fluctuations on power demand fluctuations were researched. The linear regression analysis and impulse response analysis and relative contribution rate analysis and GM(1,N) analysis and Grey multiple regression analysis of the influences of factor fluctuations on power demand fluctuations were conducted. According to the results of researches above, the coincidence of Kydland cycle theory and power demand cycle fluctuations could be determined. On the basis of the trend of development and changes of current Chinese technology, the measures of the power grid enterprises coping with the power demand fluctuations in this situation were proposed.