| Liquidity is China's recent problems and important issues that faced in the macro-control. China's economy is in high-speed operation, but cannot get rid of excess liquidity. Due to imperfect financial markets and economic structural imbalances, regulators on macro regulation of liquidity faced with a difficult situation. It is an important subject to solve that how the liquidity intervene the economic operation directly or indirectly and the effect of the conduction process.In addition, from the characteristics of global liquidity conditions, the change characteristics of liquidity is more and more obvious. The dynamic changes of liquidity must have an affect on the smooth running of economy. This paper studies the liquidity changes influence on China's price and output. Especially, research on monetary policy transmission mechanism under the condition of different liquidity. This paper is divided into six chapters, the main content and structure of chapters are arranged as following:Chapter One is the introduction, mainly introduces the background and significance of research topic, review the literatures related liquidity problems and explain the research idea and the structure arrangement. Among them, focus on reviewing the literatures. Before explain the related literature classify, this paper review and comb the studies of the definition of liquidity, expounds the connotation and denotation of liquidity, make the liquidity and liquidity problems clear. On the basis of distinguishing the different levels liquidity, this paper make the monetary or macro liquidity as specific research object, and review the research literature on different issues. In detail, this paper classify the literature of four different problems. Including the relationship between economic entity with liquidity research review, the relationship between liquidity and asset prices research review, liquidity and monetary policy transmission mechanism research review, liquidity imbalances and financial stability research review.Chapter Two research on features of liquidity changes in China. Firstly, review on the experience of estimating liquidity conditions home and abroad and the existing problems. On basis of this, put forward the method to measure liquidity. This paper consider of measuring liquidity from two aspects, including "quantity" and "mass" category. Specifically, from the amount of liquidity, choose generalized currency level with GDP ratio as scale; but in the nature of liquidity, measure through the difference between liquidity and its long-term equilibrium level. Secondly, this paper research changing track in the level of liquidity, considering its dynamic characteristics. Through the statistics description of liquidity level, depict the progress of China's liquidity changes. From deeper level, we design the ARIMA model and discuss its own dynamic growth path; reveal its structural characteristics in the process of its changes with structural testing. On the other hand, this paper also consider the conversion process of liquidity condition. Through setting the long-term equilibrium level of liquidity, to realize the measure of liquidity gap. On basis of this, considering the process of liquidity condition changes. Particularly, on basis of dividing its state, discuss the cycle of liquidity condition.Chapter Three research on the dynamic relation of liquidity changes and the price and output fluctuation in China. The relationship of liquidity with the price, output is the important problems which cause scholars' attention. This chapter is mainly discuss from the angle of empirical analysis. Firstly, this paper statistically analyze the evolution of liquidity and variation features of the price and output, descript directly the relationship between them. Make correlation inspection and quantizing its relevance characteristics. Secondly, we discuss this problem from the perspective of theory, set up the theoretical contact between liquidity level and price and output. Through the expansion of monetary amount equation, we join in the asset prices in the model. After, we discuss the output, price, asset prices and liquidity level of time sequence of long-term relations through the co-integration relationship inspection method. Through the co-integration test, we can judge whether the currency liquidity has long-term neutral. Finally, on the basis of co-integration analysis, considering the liquidity has short-term effects on the price and output. We have established a vector error correction model, in order to discuss the short-term relationship between variables. In addition, describe the the dynamic process characteristics of short-term effects through the Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition method of measuring. This chapter introduces the asset prices in the empirical research, so it compared with China's actual characteristic and has better fitting. Chapter Four research on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy under the state of liquidity changes. The asymmetric effects of monetary policy are revealed in the study of literature, however, these studies ignore the liquidity condition system. Therefore, this chapter consider when excess liquidity is in different levels, whether monetary policy effect has obvious difference. Firstly, this chapter explain monetary policy transmission mechanism in theory, discuss the process of monetary policy finally effect under the interest rates on bank lending channel, channel assets and liabilities, then analyze the liquidity may effect on monetary policy. Secondly, we check the asymmetric effects of monetary policy through the establishment of threshold vector auto-regressive (TVAR) model, using excess liquidity as threshold variables. Based on the theoretical analysis of the excess liquidity, dividing liquidity into two areas with surplus or not surplus. Through the likelihood ratio test, determine whether the system of liquidity effects on monetary policy.Chapter Five research on liquidity changes have effects on price and output under the dynamic analysis framework, relative chapters three and four partial equilibrium analysis from the perspective, the research of this chapter is based on general equilibrium analysis framework. Firstly, this chapter presents the general equilibrium analysis of dynamic stochastic modeling of the framework, review the modeling ideas and methods for estimation in theory. Secondly, under the forefront theoretical framework, combined with China s actual situation ,we set a general equilibrium model of dynamic random. Then, on the basis of analysis of optimize behavior on the agent, considering the symmetrical balance condition of the model.Chapter Six research on control measures based on the price and output target. Firstly, this chapter considers risk meaning of liquidity changes to prices and stable output target. From three angles expounds in detail, including in the economic cycle, the capital market bubble and the financial crisis in the formation of liquidity. Secondly, estimate China's currency demand function. Research the long-term and short-term monetary demand function respectively through establishing econometric model. Considering the current price and output stability target, combining China's currency demand function, we analyze deeply on the goal of currency adjustment. Finally, research the control measure of monetary liquidity. On the basis of discussing the central bank feasible control tools, we review China's macro-control policies and analyze the countermeasures our current liquidity problems. The main conclusions of this study include:(1) Put forward the measure of liquidity including"quantity"and"qualitative"category, that is respectively considering the amount of liquidity level and state. After the discussion of several common index, this article chooses M2 / GDP as the amount of liquidity, makes the difference between M2 / GDP and its trend value as the index of liquidity condition. Through the research of the changes of liquidity level trajectory, find the information with liquidity has features of ARIMA (2, 1, 1).But through the structural inspection, reveals the structural characteristics of the process of liquidity changes. On the other hand, also considers the liquidity condition conversion process. Through the setting of long-term equilibrium level, realizing the measuring of liquidity gap. From the measure index, in the year of 1996 to 1998 , 2000-2001,2007-2008, liquidity is below the stability of the value of trend level, reflects the relative shortage of liquidity; but in the year of 1999,2002-2006 and 2009, liquidity is higher than the corresponding reference, reflects the relative surplus of liquidity. On this basis, considering the liquidity of the state transition process. Particularly, on the basis of division of its state, discussing the cycle feature of liquidity condition. Granger causality test shows, GDP is the Granger causality under the liquidity condition.(2) Research on dynamic relation of the price and output liquidity changes fluctuation in China. Through the expansion of monetary amount equation, we established dynamic relationship of the level of vector error correction model test output, price, asset prices and liquidity. Co-integration relationship test results show, output, price, asset prices and liquidity level of time sequence exists long-term stable relationships. According to the cointegration analysis, liquidity and actual output exist no significant positive correlation, but exist significant positive contact with the price level. On this basis, considering the short-term effects of the fluidity to the price and output. Liquidity level and actual output exist the two-way Granger causality. Impulse response analysis shows, the disturbance from the level of liquidity can finally format the stable positive influence on the actual output, the price level and asset prices. In the empirical study of this chapter, introducing the asset prices, compared with China's actual characteristic, therefore has better fitting.(3) Research on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the state of liquidity Changes. The asymmetric effects of monetary policy have been revealed in the large study of literature, however, these studies ignored the liquidity condition system. Therefore, this paper consider, when the excess liquidity in different levels, whether monetary policy effect has obvious difference. Through the establishment of threshold vector auto-regressive (TVAR) model, use excess liquidity as threshold variables, we checkout the asymmetric effects of monetary policy. Consider divide the liquidity into two parts, surplus and not surplus. Through the likelihood ratio test, find the monetary policy effect exists liquidity area. Research results show, in 2002-2006,our country's monetary policy was in the high level of liquidity multi-member district, but in 2007-2008, in the low level of liquidity multi-member district. Recently, liquidity system change to high system change.(4) In the dynamic general equilibrium analysis framework, research on the the price and output effects of changing monetary liquidity. Firstly, this chapter presents the general equilibrium analysis of dynamic random framework, review the modeling ideas and estimation method in theory. Secondly, in the forefront theory of the framework model, combined with the actual conditions of our country, set the condition of the dynamic general equilibrium model. Finally, on the basis of the analysis on the agent optimization behavior, considering the model of symmetrical balance. Through the analysis of the results, discuss the mechanism of liquidity Specifically.(5)Research on control measures that based on price and output targets. Firstly,This chapter considers the meaning of risk that liquidity changes for the price and output stability target. Specifically described from three perspectives. That is economic cycle fluctuations,capital market bubble and the role of liquidity in the process of financial crisis forming. Secondly, estimate our country's currency demand function. Through establishing econometric model, research on both long-term and short-term monetary demand function. Considering the current price and output stability target, incorporation our country's currency demand function, we analyze deeply on the goal of monetary control. Finally, study the control method of monetary liquidity. On the basis of discussing the central bank feasible control tool, we review our macro-control policies and analyze the countermeasures of dissolving in liquidity problems.
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