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A Study On The Impact Of Asset Prices Fluctuations On China's Macroeconomy

Posted on:2011-01-14Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:S ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119360305492320Subject:Western economics
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The dissertation researches and analysis the impact of asset prices on China macroeconomic from the perspcetive as following. Firstly, systematical empirical study and comparative analysis of wealth effect of stock price and house price in china. Secondly, analysis the impact of asset price fluctuations on investment as well as the correlation between entrepreneur confidence. Thirdly, by constructing Financial condition index to examine the relationship between asset prices and infaltion, and then analysis its implication for monetary policy. Lastly, through a theoretical model which show how asset price bubbles challenge on the macroecnomis and policy we gets some inspiration, combined with the characteristics of expansion in China's asset price, the dissertation makes policy recommendations on how should monetary policy respond to asset prices volatility.The dissertation elaborates from empirical analysis and theorical analysis based on comparative analysis, statistical analysis, economitirc method and theory model. The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:(1) The influence of China's house price fluctuations on the economy through the consumption and investment channels has become increasingly important, while the stock price volatility is still relatively weak. As the real estate industry has become a pillar industry, housing assets has been more widely held and the rising liquidity and profitability of housing assets, the house price fluctuations both have significant positive effecet on consumption and investment in China. In contrast, stock price have significant crowding-out effect because of higher liquidity, speculative and more frequent fluctuations in stock market.(2) The fluctuations in asset prices of China contain the dynamic information of the future changes in inflation. By designing and calculating Financial Conditions index (FCI), find that FCI not only appears to correlated with inflation fairly closely and often catches its turning points in advance, but also can be used to analysis monetary policy "tighter" or "looser" than previous or benchmark period. So MCIs should be served both as a leading indicator for inflation and a coincident indicator for monetary policy stance. This means that when need to manage the expectations of inflation, monetary policy should start from the capital market and maintain the stability of asset prices. This also means that the effective implementation of monetary policy should pay more attention to the transmission channels of asset prices.(3) Under the policy environment of which monetary policy against intervention the asset price bubbles, the asset price bubbles will not only pose great impact on macroeconomic stability, but also make monetary policy be trouble in post-bubble era. In the process of dynamic evolution of asset price bubbles, the bank credit is a key variable, and therefore monetary policy should concern and timely intervention the asset price bubbles which closely connected with bank credit. At the same time when response to asset price bubbles,the policy which lack of targeted not only may have negative impact on non-bubbles sectors,but also make monetary policy be trouble.(4) There exist bubbles in China's capital market in certain periods. Because of the more closely links between the real estate market and bank credit in china, means that monetary policy should be more vigilant against the bubbles generation in real estate market. Response to price inflation and bubbles in stock market and real eatate market, monetary policy in China should not only adopt different attitude, but also should have different coping styles.
Keywords/Search Tags:Asset prices, Asset pices bubbles, Wealth effects, Inflation, Monetary policy
PDF Full Text Request
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