Regional Water And Soil Resources Systems Analysis And Grain Yield Increase Potential

Water and soil resources is not only the most basic material of the human society survival, but also the basic conditions for production and development. It also decides regional economic disparities and is an important factor of the national power size. Water and soil resources problem has been one of the most focus problems for a long time, especially since the 1970s, as the contradiction among the growing human demand for water and soil resources, the scarcity and limited of its own, the problem of soil and water resources development and utilization clearly become a global hot topic.This paper adopts the modern data processing methods and combine with the national "Eleventh Five-Year" science and technology support projects to systemically study water and soil resources trends, multiple time scale, carrying capacity, the grain yield increase potential under different spatial scales and planting structure adjustment in Qiqihar, Heilongjiang Province. The main research contents and production are presented as follows:(1)Some mathematical models are set up to predict annual precipitation, average annual groundwater depth, annual runoff and arable land, such as BP-ANN model, improved GM(1,1) model, PLS model and wavelet random coupling model. The results show that: the established models are better to forecast water and soil resources. The precipitation forecasting results show that there will be not severe drought in the next 10 years; The groundwater forecasting results show that if mining continued in the current pattern, the groundwater depth decline will be 6.45m in the next 10 years; The arable land forecasting results show that arable land area will be volatile in the next 10 years and present increase or decrease trends.(2)This paper mainly use wavelet theory to analyze the multiple time scales of annual precipitation, the main flood season precipitation, annual runoff, monthly runoff and arable land of Qiqihar. The research results show: The first, second and third main cycle of annual runoff are 29 years, 6 years and16 years. The first, second and third main cycle of the main flood season precipitation are 6 years, 11 years and 29 years. The main flood season precipitation change to a large extent controls the change of annual precipitation; The first, second and third main cycle of annual runoff are 32 years, 5 years(or 7 years) and 13 years. The first, second and third main cycle of monthly runoff are 384 months(32 years), 84 months(7 years) and 39 months(3.3 years). The monthly runoff change determines the annual runoff change; The first, second and third main cycle of arable land are 40 years(even greater), 17 years and 32 years,and these main cycles commonly control the dynamic change law of arable land in Qiqihar.(3)This paper adopts DPSIR model (Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response Framework) to construct water and soil resources carrying capacity evaluation index system. On the basis of index system reliability test,the RAGA-PPE model is built to evaluate water and soil resources carrying capacity of Qiqihar urban and its counties,the results show:the urban > Gannan > Longjiang > Fuyu > Kedong > Tailai > Yi'an > Nehe > Keshan > Baiquan.(4)Each grain production impact factor for the Sort of impact by grain output in Heilongjiang Province:Grain yield>Sown area of grain>Agricultural disaster area>Chemical Fertilizers>Total Power>Effective irrigation area>Pesticide use,but the key role impact factor of grain production in Qiqihar City were Effective irrigation area,Pesticide use,Total Power.Above-mentioned research can provide reference to formulate food development of different scales in Heilongjiang Province and Qiqihar City,At the same time,It illustrate that with the changes of research scale,Each grain production impact factor for the region's grain output Sort of impact are also changing all the time.(5) From the basic idea of complex adaptive systems theory, this paper preliminarily explore the characteristics, agent and operating mechanism of CAS theory and analyze the complexity and CAS characteristics of planting structure adjustment, the planting structure adjustment model framework based on agriculture water and soil resources complex adaptive system is built. At the same time, co-evolutionary genetic algorithm is adopt to solve the built model. On this basis, from the coordination degree of the subsystem and overall system, the coordination degree of agriculture water and soil resources system benefit can be evaluated. The results show: agricultural water and soil resources system after planting structure optimization adjustment evolve toward a more coordinated direction.(6) The Long-term forecast grain output result by Multiple regression prediction model in Heilongjiang Province shows:the future grain output in Heilongjiang Province will express the continued growth Situation,Grain output in 2015,2020,2025,2030years Were 5193.54tons,5701.73tons,6208.20tons,6703.89tons;The Long-term forecast grain output result by Principal component analysis and prediction model in Qiqihar City shows:the future grain output in Qiqihar City will also express the growth Situation,Grain output in 2015,2020,2025,2030years Were 844.33tons,907.33tons,974.33tons,1044.8tons.