Study On Flexible Management Of Region Financial Policy Risk Based On Risk Conduction

Under the influence of the global financial crisis, the rapid economic development of our country slows. The implementation effect of the financial policy is experiencing the tremendous test in crisis. How-to effectively guard against the implement risk of the financial policy, and provide maximum support for domestic economic development, is the key thing that facing the financial policy makers. Due to the economic features of powers, duing the implementation process of financial policy, China's governers face the problems, such as the too big management range, and the lower management efficiency, which could led to the transmission of the risk.This dissertation tries to establish the regional financial policy risk flexible management model based on the perspective of regional management and the path of risk conduction, in order to adapt to the requirement of the objective conditions.Chapter 1 introduces the purpose, the significance and the methods. Then it decides the framework of the dissertation by researching the related literature at home and abroad,Chapter 2 analyzes the implementation effect of the domestic and foreign financial policy. Firstly it analyzes the influence of various foreign financial crisis, and find out the common features. Then it analyzes the financial policy implementation in China.Chapter 3 constructs the theory model of the region financial policy risk fleible management, which is the open, dynamic, organic united model, according to the risk conduction path of the region financial policy, and the principles of region differences, flexibility, management range, and harmonization.Chapter 4, through the VAR model testing, amends the previous theoretical model structure. Through the collation of economic data from the different regions, it constucts a VAR model, and puts through the impulse test, Granger correlation test, and the forecast variance test. The results show that the impacts of different financial policies on one region and the same policy performance in each region are significant differences.Chapter 5 establishs a region financial policy risk evaluation index system.Based on the structural equation modeling method, the index system is including the macro warning indexs, the basic layer warning indexs, the middle layer warning indexs and the qualitative indexs. The index system is using to evaluate the region financial policy risk to improve the management level.Chapter 6 is an empirical analysis. The desciptive statistical analysis shows that the regional situation is complex, index value can not be used to evaluate the risk level. Therefore this chapter uses the structural equation model by further refine the scope of data to the various regions, determines overall weight, and calculates the region risk value.The results show that the risk value is better fit the actual situation. It is beneficial for the risk assessment, and to establish measures.Chapter 7 puts forward the measures to strength the region financial policy flexible management, which is including the support of policy, funding, human resource and technique.Chapter 8 is the full dissertation summarization and study forecast.