| This paper analysis and study the formation and evolution mechanism of the stock market bubbles, drawing on the latest research results at home and abroad, making the formation of the stock market bubbles as main line, according to the actual operation of the stock market. Macro and micro analysis, theoretical and empirical analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis are mainly research method in this paper. Also, corresponding to some theories, based on studying the stock market bubbles in our country, the paper make some policy recommendations to preventing and controlling the stock market bubbles.This thesis includes six aspects:First, clearly define the concept of the stock market bubbles and summarize the basic conditions to the stock market bubbles formation; Second, discusse in detail the various factors affecting the stock market bubbles, and put forward the general framework about the stock market bubbles affecting on many factors; Third, in the stock market because information is incomplete and asymmetric in reality, and investors have the basic characteristics of limited rationality, so according to the relationship between different participants in the stock market, formation mechanism of the stock market bubbles was studied in the paper in-depth; Fourth, to the stock market bubbles, the basic path and mechanisms are analyzed about its generation in local, expansion and continue to spread around, eventually evolved into the market bubbles; Fifth, based on the characteristic of the heterogeneous market players, the non-linear evolution model of the stock market bubbles is established, and studied further the evolution mechanism of the stock market bubbles. Finally, the path of the general evolution of the stock market bubbles is proposed; Sixth, according to the theory on formation and evolution of the stock market bubbles, China's stock market bubbles phenomenon is studied empirically. Finally, some methods and policy recommendations of prevention and management stock market bubbles are proposed. The paper is divided into seven chapters:Introduction, basic conditions of stock market bubbles formation, the impact of the stock market bubbles, the mechanism and empirical test of the stock market bubbles under limited rationality formation of investors, the bubbles evolution characteristics under limited rationality formation of investors, an empirical study of the stock market bubbles in our country, and some methods and policy recommendations of prevention and management stock market bubbles. The sections have a layer into the relationship.The first chapter is an introduction. In the part, the main issue is the background and significance of the stock market bubbles. From the point of the efficient market hypothesis and behavioral finance theory, combing on the research literature the existing home and abroad of the stock market bubbles, for the following study providing a theoretical foundation and ideological sources. In this chapter, also the logical structure of this paper is studied; the main ideas and methods are described generally, and given the basic logic frame of the paper development.In chapter 2, formed the basis conditions of the stock market bubbles. This chapter, in the first, defined the concept of stock bubbles (local bubbles) and the stock market bubbles, and its basic characteristics were analyzed. In analysis, the stock market is a real form of social and economic existence also is inevitable result of the economic system evolution and social development to a certain stage. Thus, the stock market is an important form of the virtual economy, continuous development of the virtual economy provides the material basis of the stock market bubbles, and the endogenous creation of money and financial innovation and development provided the institutional basis to evolution and generation of the bubbles. Without these important material foundation and institutional conditions, the stock market bubbles will lose economic carrier, also lost the social system environment for produce. Its generation and evolution is unthinkable.In chapter 3, analyzes the various factors affecting the stock market bubbles. This chapter which divided the various factors of the stock market bubbles into three main areas:situational factors, micro individual and macroeconomic factors. First of all, along the stock issuance, listing and trading routes discussed in more detail the system of stock issuance, trading circulation system, information disclosure system and the clearing and settlement system on the formation and evolution of the stock market bubbles has brought a major impact. In the bubbles formation process, the micro-elements are in the main key position not being replaced. Bounded rationality of investors is investors'realistic and basic features, the existence of it's create difficult to achieve effective market conditions and the basic causes of foam. In this section, the main distinction between micro individual investors and institutional investors was studied. Along the "information-mental-decision-action-market" line of analysis, with behavioral finance theory, by arguments investors'cognitive and decision mechanism to know the process of investors' act under various market factors and strategic decision-making, how to led the market bubbles, and given the evolution of the general path of the behavior of individual investors and institutional investors in the stock market bubbles. Macroeconomic factors provides a great environment to changes of the foam, which make impact of various multi-factor mixture in the field for the macroeconomic to the stock market bubbles, including fluctuations of the economic cycle as purely economic factors, the government's macroeconomic policy, the economic relations between countries involving cross-border flows of capital. Finally, based on the different factors having the combined effect and the general framework stock market bubbles affected by many factors were proposed.In chapter 4, based on the bounded rationality of the investors'basic characteristics, taking into account the basic facts of information asymmetric and not entirely, the game state changes were studied among market players and given four basic and typical characteristics of a foam fuse element promoting the bubbles expansion, proliferation or reducing. First, given the market game model based on ease market liquidity (lack or excess) pressure; Second, given the stimulated foam model based on the investors'behavior spreading and transfer investment risk; Third, to pursuit of rational results, investors have the cognitive bias to investment, so cause the existence of biased behavior, and promote bubbles formation; Fourth, under the condition not taking the true information to investors, who often accord the price prevailing to market outlook, so cause biased behavior which is deviation from the expected-chasing sell into corrections and contributed to the bubbles, it is the individual rationality and collective rationality paradox of the typical phenomena. This chapter in the behavioral characteristics of these markets on the basis of theoretical analysis discusses some common and its inspection methods and gives some scholars of empirical evidence.In chapter 5, based on the last chapter of the foam generated, analyzes the evolution characteristics of the stock market bubbles. In this chapter, analyzing the expand mechanism of the local bubbles in first, and its spread the path into overall market bubbles. Subsequently, using non-linear technologies we study the nonlinear continuous further of bubbles of the overall market bubbles, further demonstrate the non-effectiveness of stock market. Drawing on ABS concept to more realistic market, the main heterogeneous agent model was established. From a theoretical point of view of the heterogeneous agent existing markets, the general evolution features and burst conditions of the bubbles are given, also, summed up the general evolution path of the stock market bubbles.In chapter 6, combined the previous chapters, researched the stock market bubbles problem on our country by empirical study. By the detailed data, intuitive graphic form, analysis the current development situation, the change characteristics of china's stock market bubbles. This chapter give the conclusion that the changes in china's stock market bubbles period closely related to the macroeconomic cycles and often moving ahead; Bubbles expansion process is generally accompanied by more liberal economic policy environment; Bubbles obviously gone through the development of expansion (reduction) with the diffusion process, the expansion of the bubbles in the early stage subject to the impaction of the changes and expected to be a good performance, and in the rapid expansion of the bubbles stage, the herding based on the influence of the expected and positive feedback are important driving force, and the herding often fell to greater than the level in the bubbles formation and the extent of continued expansion stage; China's stock market bubbles to external shocks with long-term memory characteristics, there is approximately 90 days of non-cyclical stock market bubbles of the operation is a nonlinear characteristic.In chapter 7, we propose the prevention and management to the stock market bubbles in China's policy recommendations. According to reason of china's main stock market bubbles, the stock market bubbles can be prevented managed in macroeconomic, market microstructure and market system. In the bubbles burst and expansion phase, management is a longer-term work; How to use the low-cost measures to effectively stabilize the market price in the case of not undermine market confidence, and how to rebuild the confidence about the stock market price movements and the rapid restoration in the economy is a huge challenge after the bubbles burst.In this paper, the main innovations include:(1) Defines the basic content of the stock market bubbles and the concept of the stock market bubbles levels. Clearly the idea that the stock market bubbles and the stock bubbles is two different concepts; the former is basis to latter, the latter is the former result of expansion and proliferation; the former is more micro issue, and the latter is more macro-issues;(2) Propose clearly the promoting the level problem of the stock market bubbles, and researched by the empirical studies, that is to say researched on the hole mechanism,which started with the units (partial) foam coming, and then continue to expand and to spread around, eventually leading to the formation mechanism of the overall market bubbles;(3) Propose clearly the promoting the level of the stock market bubbles problem, and researched by the empirical studies, that is to say researched on the hole mechanism, which started with the units (partial) foam comes, and then continue to expand and to spread around, eventually leading to the formation mechanism of the market bubbles;(4) Propose the active management of overlap perturbation techniques and economic system of the stock market bubbles in early stages based on the inherent problems of governance in the bubbles inspired by the concept of forced conversion paths.
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