On Investment Risks Of The Agricultural Listed Companies In China

Investment-led economic growth is an indisputable fact, and the investment income has always been accompanied with risks, so does agricultural industry. As the representative of agricultural products industrialization, agricultural market-oriented management and large-scale organizational structure, agricultural listed companies have obvious effect on establishing modern agricultural enterprise system, adjusting agricultural industry structure and perfecting agricultural products market mechanism. However, since the agricultural enterprises enter the capital market, the high risk of investment in Chinese agricultural listed companies is a fact that can not be ignored, which makes a great negative impact on enterprise and agricultural industry. In order to promote the process of building modern agriculture, boost the rapid development of agricultural enterprises, especially agricultural listed companies, construct long-term mechanism of agricultural industry sustainable development and develop research on investment risk of agricultural listed companies, it's necessary and urgent to study the investment risks of agricultural listed company.This paper uses the uncertainty theory, enterprise behavior theory, agricultural insurance theory, external theory and modern portfolio theory as the theoretical basis of research. It uses quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis model and combines with cases from both the macro and micro to study investment risks of Chinese agricultural listed companies systematically. The whole text is divided into nine chapters, the specific research contents are carried out according to the following logic:The first chapter describes the research background of this article and sets forth the aims and significance of the study methods and ideas. It also reviews the domestic and foreign-related research literature and points out the possible innovation thesis. Chapter two introduces related theories of this paper and takes non-deterministic theory, corporate investment behavior theory, agricultural insurance theory, externality theory and modern portfolio theory as the theoretical basis for research paper, which provides theoretical support for further study. In chapter three, combined with Chinese agricultural listed companies character and risk status, the paper analyzes the cause and influence of the "fake agricultural" investment to investment risk of agricultural listed companies. By studying the cause and character of investment risks in agricultural listed companies, chapter four analyzes the comparative advantage and the existing problems of the investment in agricultural listed companies under policy environment. Chapter five establishes identification methods of investment risks in agricultural listed company and identifies the factors that lead to investment risks. Therefore, the investment risks of agricultural listed companies can be reduced to basic risks and prominent risks. And the paper also unscrambles the risks one by one. Chapter six gives comments on the traditional risk analysis methods. On this base it introduces a new risk analysis method: sensitivity--probability cross analysis method, which gives demonstration analysis on investment risks of agricultural listed companies. Chapter seven takes Shenzhen and Shanghai categories agricultural listed companies as samples, and analyzes four prominent types of risks:natural disaster risks, Top Mangement Team investment decision-making risk, legal risk and negative externality risks. In accordance with the development of Chinese agricultural industry realities and combined with the characteristics of China's listed companies, chapter eight puts forward elusion countermeasure and policy recommendations of investment risks from both micro and macro sides. Chapter nine is a summary and prospect of this article.The paper has several distinctive features on studying investment risks of agricultural listed company:First, the paper systematically studies investment risks in agricultural listed company. Search found that the research literature of investment risks in agricultural listed company, especially systematic research fruit, is relatively rare. The author gives systematic research and establishes analysis frame on investment risks in agricultural listed company.To a certain extent, the paper can enrich and develop the theory of agricultural investment risks.Second, it establishes risk identification methods which are fit for investment risk characteristics in agricultural listed companies. Identification results show that:firstly, the basic risks and prominent risk are two major categories existed in agricultural investment activities of listed companies. In particular, it's an innovative theory try and the theoretical innovation in line with the actual situation to insert Top Mangement Team investment decision risk, legal risk and negative externalities risk into prominent risks in agricultural listed company in the current macro-micro domestic agricultural policies and investment environment; Secondly, through the introduction of probability-sensitivity cross-cutting analysis, it carries out a comprehensive analysis of the basic risk of investment risks in agricultural listed companies, which proves this methods is scientific, rational and practical in analyzing investment risks in agricultural listed companies, and settles the technique problems of analysis methods of investment basic risks; The paper aims at the history situation of natural disasters through the introduction of a historical disaster information based on the natural disasters risk numeral statistics model, and gets risk estimate value according to empirical analysis and mathematical description and then makes correspondent investment decision. It has universal application value on analyzing natural disaster of agricultural listed companies which have a history of disaster information.Third, homogeneity and heterogeneity of Top Mangement Team human capital characteristics of agricultural listed companies have a significant impact on investment risk and have become a key dominant factor. By lucubrating prominent risks of agricultural listed companies, the authors found that the number and level of Top Mangement Team human capital have a significant impact on investment risks of agricultural listed company, and only by enhancing the overall quality of the team can avoid investment and decision-making risks; In addition, the non-rational economic behavior of agricultural listed companies,as the investment subject of rural public goods, is likely to cause negative externality risks of agricultural listed companies, while the internalization of negative externality risks is the fundamental way to solve negative externality risks.Based on these research conclusions, the author puts forward the elusion countermeasure and policy suggestion when facing investment risks, which has instructive significance for agricultural listed companies to guard against investment risks.