Research On Models Of Capacity Reserve Toward Unconventional Emergencies

In recent years, the frequent unconventional emergencies usually cause large-scale demand of emergency items in a short time. Emergency items as the most important resource support must be sufficient to deal with an emergency, otherwise the scope of disaster-affected region and the amount of victims will increase rapidly, and secondary emergencies may also occur, which will threaten seriously the people's lives, property and the order of social life. But the market is usually very difficult to meet the large-scale emergent demand. How to raise and provide abundant emergency items after an unconventional emergency occur has become a research question which needs to be solved. Thus, material reservation, as the significant guarantee to meet large-scale emergent demand, has been studied in detail by more and more scholars and operators.However, the existing researches on material reservation mainly focus on physical scale, configuration, distribution, allocation, transportation, etc., but lack essential work on other types of material reservation. No matter how to plan the scale and configuration of physical reserves, it is often impossible and unnecessary to meet demand of any possible unconventional emergency. In addition, the physical reservation has much limitation in reserve space and duration, and may be confronted with the following shortage of support ability, thus other types of material reservation draw people's attention. Production capacity reservation plays an important complementary role in physical reservation in reserve space and duration, but also ensures the following support ability of emergent materials. However, there is very little related literature. With the advance in technology, production efficiency of enterprises has been much enhanced. It is feasible to rapidly transform production capacity reservation into physical resources. Capacity reservation as the object of study has a very important significance in theory and practice.Based on a review of status quo of research at home and abroad, the dissertation takes emergency management theory and public goods theory as theoretical basis, uses many kinds of research techniques, such as differential system dynamics, game theory, qualitative and quantitative analysis, etc., and deeply analyzes the key questions in realizations of production capacity reservation, including the mobilization of enterprise spare capacity, selection of entrusted enterprises, and co-built of production capacity reservation between government and enterprises. Starting with anatomizing the intension and extension of unconventional emergency and production capacity reservation, the dissertation proposes that production capacity reservation has the emergency nature and quasi-public goods nature with temporary competition and non-exclusionism, and point out that it is necessary for the government and enterprises to participate jointly during carrying out the production capacity reservation. Then the dissertation constructs a theoretical framework of realization ways of the production capacity reservation, including mobilization of enterprise spare capacity which is a kind of temporary production capacity reservation, production capacity reservation of entrusted enterprises under the government subsidy, and co-built of production capacity reservation between government and enterprises.Firstly, the dissertation discusses the concept and intension of enterprise spare capacity, expounds the difference and relationship between enterprise spare capacity and production capacity reservation, and point out that appropriate mobilization of enterprise spare capacity has a similar function of production capacity reservation, and then constructs the basic model and the multi-stage model on emergency production mobilization based on enterprise spare capacity. According to the assume that price is controlled and enterprise spare capacity is limited, from aspects of enterprise social responsibility, government mobilization intensity, difficulty in gaining resources for production and growth mode of emergent demand, the dissertation deeply investigates how government can increase the output of emergency items with market-oriented levers. In view of the limitation of setting mobilization intensity according to the characteristics of various unconventional emergency stages, the dissertation constructs the model of mobilization intensity of emergency production based on usual consumption in order to improve mobilization model of emergency production.Secondly, the dissertation point outs that production capacity reservation has a dual potential positive externality of"production"and"consumption", and the government should entrust enterprises with the reservation of production capacity and provide subsidies for those enterprises instead of direct provision model. The dissertation constructs a selection model of entrusted enterprises under government subsidy that implements two-way selection between the government and the enterprise by the comparison of government expected subsidy rate and enterprise expected subsidy rate. According to utilities of physical reservation and production capacity reservation for the government at the corresponding level, the dissertation constructs a government subsidy policy model which can help the government adjust subsidy policy to affect the allocation proportion of enterprise investment on physical inventory and production capacity reservation. Thirdly, the dissertation proposes that production capacity reservation is classified into public goods and private goods form the time dimension, and production capacity reservation is only used by the government when an unconventional emergency occurs and is used by enterprises to obtain market profits in normal times, which is taken as the basic of the government and enterprise co-building production capacity reservation. Then the dissertation constructs the joint investment model as well as the principal and subordinate game model to study the matching problem of investment fund between the government and enterprises, and compares the implementation difficulty and total scale, investment strength of the government and enterprises for co-building production capacity reservation in the three investment models.Finally, the dissertation analyzes the Songhua River pollution incident, SARS and the Wenchuan Earthquake in our country and proposes some policy advices in aspects of price control, information distribution, rumor contorl, spare production capacity, mobilization means, enterprise social responsibility and productive resources supply. Then the dissertation analyzes the case of enterprise production capacity of the anti-flu drug for Zhejiang province and puts forward some improving advices. As there is almost no precedent of co-building production capacity, the dissertation suggests learning lessons from the diversification of investors in defense industries and proposes administrative advices for the government investment.