Research On The Mechanism Of Real Estate Price Formation And Fluctuations In China

As an important proportion of our country's national economy, the real estate industry has been fast developed since 1998. But during with the real estate's investment increasing, the real estate price rising, the real estate's credit scale rapid expanding, there appeared some problems, such as the imbalance of regional real estate economy's development in several areas of our country and the financial risk factors accumulated in the regional real estate. Those problems that had mentioned have not been fundamental solved because the national macro-control policies have failed to effectively target the regional characteristics of the real estate industry. Based on the analysis of the Real Estate Price's form mechanism and the fluctuations in China, this article reveals the micro basis of the basic elements'influence and the development rule of the real estate industry, and gives the theory consult and practice reference to the China's real estate market, the regional economic and the finance's coordinate development.Based on the consumer's inter-session equilibrium analysis and the introduction of the real estate consumer durables'characteristics to the agent consumption function, this article forms the relationship of the real estate market main's micro behavior and the macro-economic, improves the inter-session equilibrium analysis method, and then theoretical analysis the role of financial support at the real estate market. In the next step, the article revealed the action conditions of the financial support to the real estate's consumption, investment and the price using comparative static analysis and sensitivity analysis, and then measured the effective threshold of the financial support to the development of real estate using the sensitivity analysis.Aimed to the frequent fluctuations in real estate's prices caused by the real estate market's complexes change, the article biochemical changes the real estate price fluctuations to the continuous conversion process using the Markov switching model, resolves the problems of the real estate price data's non-linear and structural changes, and then scientifically judges the form of real estate price's fluctuations and its conversion mechanism. This model fit the real estate market mechanism of price's fluctuation well, and revealed the fluctuation rules of our country's real estate industry. The real estate's regional and non-mobility decides the geo-spatial effects to the regional real estate market's development, so the paper analysis the regional real estate market's spatial difference and spatial association using spatial exploration analysis and spatial regression method. In the first, the paper reveals the area relation of the real estate market's development, and tests the space autocorrelation degree using spatial autocorrelation indicators. In the second, the paper try to make sure the reason and the effect size of real estate market's development differences in spatial distribution using the spatial regression method.At last, aimed at the potential financial risks in our country's regional real estate market adjustment, based on the economic behaviors of the commercial banks, the real estate buyers and the developers using the commercial bank fund's stress test, the paper measures the price fluctuations in the real estate market and financial risks. And then the paper gives the policy,the suggestion and the measure to the real estate corporation ,the government and the bank ,in order to avoid the financial risks for the real estate market.