Study On The Effectiveness Evaluation Method Of Landslide Monitoring And Forecast

Three Gorges Reservoir Region is located in the second step of China terraineastern margin with the complicated topography including high mountains and steepslopes, deep valleys. The reservoir region coastal geological and geomorphologicalconditions are extremely complex, landslide, rockfall and debris flow have occurred.Geological environment of Three Gorges Reservoir Region is extremely fragile, withhigh incidence and easy-prone regions of geological disasters in China. According tothe survey, the large-scale landslides are more than2100in Three Gorges Project,with the reservoir water level fluctuation effects of instability and potential instabilityof the landslide of1130. Based on risk, prevention and treatment difficulty andhazards object migration, hazards object can be divided into project management,relocation and monitoring and early warning type. According to the present China’snational strength, so many of the landslide hazard can not be invested heavily inproject management for all landslide, monitoring and early warning which istechnically feasible, economically reasonable, safe are reliable choice for preventionand treatment measures.Monitoring and early warning system of Three Gorges Reservoir Region hasplayed a big role for economic and social benefit since operation. In the landslideprevention and controlling’s third planning of Three Gorges Reservoir, landslides ofmonitoring and early warning accounted for66%, volume accounted for69.3%andthe population accounted for36.7%in the total landslide number. Such a largenumber of monitoring and early warning projects, its implementation to themonitoring and early warning and forecasting, including the professional monitoring,group measurement and prevention, emergency monitoring projects and early warning and forecast the effect have been a problem plaguing the department in charge ofgeological disasters. Therefore, this paper which carry out the landslide disastermonitoring and forecasting effect assessment studies has practical significance andgreat economic and social benefits to avoid and reduce geological disasters losses. Atthe same time, the work is also good to enrich and develop landslide monitoringrelevant theoretical forecast to monitoring and forecasting effect assessment methodsand standards formation of Three Gorges Reservoir Region, to promote thenormalization and standardization of Three Gorges Reservoir Region landslidestandardization of the road. And also, it has important practical significance in the lateregulation planning part of Three Gorges Project.On the basis of domestic and international scholars research, this paper carriesout with the sub-project “Three Gorges Reservoir Region geological disastermonitoring and forecasting analysis and assessment” of “Three Gorges ReservoirRegion geological disaster early warning command system”. In collecting, analyzinglandslide disasters instances at home and abroad, especially the information on thebasis of the landslide monitoring and forecasting of Three Gorges Reservoir Region,this paper established evaluation mathematical models of monitoring and forecastingeffect assessment indicators system of landslide, Using.Net development tools andthe Oracle database, this paper developed by the Three Gorges Reservoir Regionlandslide early warning command system monitoring and forecasting effect evaluationsoftware. These provide scientific basis for the assessment of landslide hazardmonitoring and forecasting of Three Gorges Reservoir Region effect and disasterprevention and mitigation decision-making.The contents and the results of this paper are as follows:（1）On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the landslide monitoring workof Three Gorges Reservoir Region, this paper proposed an evaluation index system oflandslide monitoring effect of Three Gorges Reservoir Region landslide. The indexsystem is divided into the3first grade indexes, including professional monitoringindicators, group measurement and guardsagainst indicators and organizationalmanagement indicators. In3first grade indexes includes12second grade indexes, anddetails of the meaning and content of the various indicators are introduced here.（2）In the evaluation of the mathematical model, The author constructmathematical model of landslide monitoring effect assessment based on fuzzymathematical comprehensive evaluation method and evidence theory. For theprinciple of the two models, construction method, and calculation procedures, Papers were respectively described in detail, and the characteristics of the two mathematicalmodels were discussed, and finally respectively by a landslide monitoring instances ofthe application.（3）The paper summarizes the concept of the landslide emergency monitoring,organization and implementation and emergency monitoring point layout of theemergency monitoring and how to build emergency monitoring commandsystem.Landslide emergency monitoring of the evaluation model includes the effectof the dynamic assessment model of emergency monitoring and emergencymonitoring of the effect of static assessment model. Papers introduced the concept“mitigability”dynamic assessment to the landslide emergency monitoring andevaluation. The paper introduces the concept “mitigability” dynamic assessment, thesudden landslide event classification and model of dynamic assessment andevaluation steps. The paper constructs a3first grade indexes,8second grade indexessystem of complete emergency monitoring the effect of static evaluation indexsystem. The system has important theoretical and practical guiding significance forcarrying out landslide emergency monitoring work.（4）Through the landslide forecast model study, the effect assessment can bedivided into prior and after effect evaluation of landslide forecast model. Prior effectevaluation of landslide forecast model used forecast quality assessment method andlandslide Pre-evaluation machine model. Forecast quality assessment method included2indexes(fitting effect index and test forecast effect index) and1index. By alandslide monitoring instance of Three Gorges Reservoir Region, the landslide qualityassessment methods are proved to be an effective and practical effect of landslideforecast model for assessment tools. In addition, presentation and discussion have bemade for pre-evaluation machine model. It introduced the assessment to the effect ofslope prediction methods, including two cases. The first, landslide is not a whole slide,and still is among the continuous deformation or deformation remains unchanged, theother is the overall sliding landslide. The appropriate assessment methods arerespectively proposed.（5）On the basis of above research results and the framework of three GorgesReservoir Region landslide monitoring and early warning command system, wedeveloped Three Gorges Reservoir Region landslide monitoring and forecasting effectassessment system. The evaluation system uses.NET framework development,development of web-based environment. The system is easy operation, beautifulinterface, easy to developing the assessment work of landslide monitoring and forecasting effect. By monitoring the effect of assessment, the software on a landslidein Three Gorges Reservoir Region, It achieved good results of the assessment.