On The Early-warning And Regulation Of Land Ecological Security Of Hunan Province

Making research on land ecological security early-warning and regulation, there are great significances on promoting the maintenance of land ecosystems, advancing the sustainable usage of land resources, building "green Hunan","ecological Hunan","two-oriented society" and ecological civilization in Hunan Province. To study the problem of land ecological security early-warning and regulation of Hunan Province, this paper followed the procedure of "basic theoretical research—warning situation assessment—warning situation forecast—warning situation regulation", and built early-warning indicators system, early-warning model, prediction model, and regulation simulative model, which were all based on the regional reality of Hunan Province and theories of ecology, land science, geography and other subjects.Firstly, this paper systemically sorted out the connotation, theories, research contents, structures and methods of land ecological security early-warning and regulation. Theories of land ecological security early-warning and regulation including the sustainable development theory, the ecological carrying capacity theory, the catastrophe theory, the system theory, the ecological amplitude theory and tolerability law, the complex ecosystem theory, the human-land relationship theory, the cybernetics theory, etc. Research contents of land ecological security early-warning and regulation mainly including five parts, which are clearing the meaning of early-warning, analyzing the warning situation, exploring the cause of warning, forecasting the degree of warning and excluding the warning suffering, and we can take the process of "clear the meaning of early-warningâ†'analyzing the warning situationâ†'exploring the cause of warningâ†'forecasting the degree of warningâ†'excluding warning suffering" in the actual operation. System structures of land ecological security early-warning and regulation including the information collecting and sorting system, the early-warning and analyzing system, the forecasting system and the regulation system. Methods of land ecological security early-warning including the black warning method, the green warning method, the yellow warning method, the red warning method, the white warning method. Regulation methods can learn from the ecological security field, which including the scenario analysis method, the decision support method, the mode-control method, the cybernetics method, etc.Secondly, this paper profiled the main problems of land ecological security in Hunan Province, and used the ecological footprint model to assess the security situation of land resources of Hunan Province in2010. Results show that, Hunan Province’s per capita ecological carrying capacity of the land resource in2010is lower than its ecological footprint, the land ecological deficit exists, which means that land resource of Hunan Province is in the state of insecurity, therefore, it is necessary to make research on early-warning and regulation, clarify the warning situation of land resource.Thirdly, based on the framework of the PSR model, this paper established a land ecological security warning index system of Hunan Province from three aspects of pressure, state and response, and evaluated the land ecological security warning situation of Hunan Province from two dimensions of time and space, which integrated used the entropy method and comprehensive index method. Results show that:(1) In1996-2010, land ecological security warning situation of Hunan Province showed a slight downward trend, dropped down from "high alarm"(orange light) to "middle alarm"(yellow light), but the drop rate is limited in all, problems that the land ecological system faced have not been fundamentally solved. In terms of each subsystem, the pressure system showed upward trend with fluctuations in1996-2010, the warning degree had risen from "high alarm"(orange light) to "heavy alarm"(red light); the state system’s warning index showed a slight upward trend, its warning degree was basic in "middle alarm"(yellow light) state; the response system showed a rapid downward trend, the warning degree plummeted from the state of "heavy alarm"(red light) to "light alarm"(blue light).(2) In2010, the spatial pattern of land ecological security warning situation of Hunan Province showed the pattern of "central Hunan was high, and other areas were low". In terms of each subsystem, in2010, warning situation of the pressure system showed the pattern of "central Hunan and northern Hunan were high, followed by eastern Hunan, southern Hunan and southwestern Hunan, and western Hunan was low"; warning situation of the state system showed the pattern of "southwestern Hunan was low, and other areas were high"; warning situation of the response system showed the pattern of "northern Hunan and central Hunan were relatively low, southern Hunan and southwestern Hunan placed in the middle, and western Hunan was relatively heavy". In terms of early-warning indicators’evolve situation, in the15years of1996-2010, Huaihua and Xiangxi autonomous prefecture showed the trend of reversal evolution, and other cities showed the trend of positive evolution. In terms of warning degree evolve situation, the pattern changed from "western Hunan was low, and other areas were high" in1996, to "central Hunan was high, and other areas were low" in2010.Fourthly, this paper selected13indicators and used the principal component analysis method to analyze the land ecological security influence mechanisms of Hunan Province. Results show that, the main mechanisms that influenced the land ecological security of Hunan Province including3aspects, which are the socio-economic mechanism, the industrial structure mechanism and the natural mechanism. In which, the socio-economic mechanism is the main mechanism and deepest reason that influence the land ecological security of Hunan Province, the industrial structure mechanism is the second factor that affecting the land ecological security of Hunan Province, and the natural mechanism is the third factor.Fifthly, on the basis of current warning situation evaluation, this paper predicted the tendency of land ecological security warning situation evolution of Hunan Province in2011-2020, which used the method of radial basis function neural network model (RBF) and Matlab7.10.0application software. Results show that:(1) RBF model has higher simulation accuracy, which can better fit the land ecological security systems’evolution trends of Hunan Province in2011-2020.(2) In the warning situation evolving trend of the subsystems, in2011-2020, the early-warning index of the pressure system will gradually increase with fluctuations, which will be close to0.63in2020, and in the "heavy alarm"(red light) state; the early-warning index of the state system will also be a slight fluctuation rise to about0.41-0.42in2020, though still in "middle alarm"(yellow light) state, the change situation is not optimistic; the early-warning index of the response system will decline further, increasingly approaching the lower limit of "light alarm"(blue light).(3) In general, if there have no big changes in2011-2020, land ecological security early-warning index of Hunan Province will basically maintain the trend of1996-2010, which will keep slight decline with fluctuations and be basic in0.46-0.49, and continue to maintain the level of "middle alarm"(yellow light).Sixthly, based on the scenario analysis method, this paper set four scenarios, which were the population control scenario, the land ecological and environmental protection scenario, the socio-economic development scenario and the coordination scenario, to simulate the land ecological security warning situation regulation in Hunan Province. Results show that, in general, the land ecological security early-warning index of Hunan Province showed a downward trend under four scenarios, but the degree of decline in population control scenario, land ecological and environmental protection scenario, socio-economic development scenario were limited, which unable to achieve the purpose of warning degree reduce, while under the coordination scenario, land ecological security warning degree can be mitigated and will drop to "light alarm" state in2020,which indicate that the alleviation of land ecological security warning situation of Hunan Province need for the integrative management of the pressure, the state and the response system and the coordinative regulation of population, resources, environment, economy and society.Finally, to provide reference for the effective regulation and management of land ecological security of Hunan Province, this paper probed on the topic of land ecological security regulation of Hunan Province. These regulations were from aspects of regulation modes (including the overall regulation mode and the typical regulation mode of urban areas, the urban fringe, soil erosion areas, mining areas, the lake district), zoning regulation (including five functional areas, which are the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan low mountains and hills land ecological function areas, the northern plains and lakes land ecological function areas, the western mountains and mountain plateaus land ecological function areas, the centern-southwest mountains and hillocks land ecological function areas, the sorthern mountains and hills land ecological function zone), land use structure regulation (formulate the land-use structure control program by use of the gray multi-target line method and WinQSB application software) and control measures and strategies.