Study On Low-Carbon Land Use Based On Improved Ecological Footprint Model

Global warming is one of the major environmental problems, which is mainlycaused by land use change and fossil fuel burning. In the current low-carboneconomic backdrop, research on carbon emission effect to land use change,low-carbon land use evaluation and low-carbon route development are significant,which can reduce greenhouse gases emission, promote development of ecologicalcivilization, furthermore, is beneficial to delay global warming and construct aresource-saving and environment-friendly society.At present, study on low-carbon land use focused on land use change mechanismand influence to carbon emission, low-carbon land use measurement and patterns.There is no uniform definition about low-carbon land use and there is little researchresults on low-carbon land use evaluation, forecast, optimization. So based on existingresearch, this paper firstly construct theoretical framework, then put up with a seriesmethods and techniques on low-carbon land use evaluation, forecast, optimization,validation, finally, make Jinan city as a case to practice above methods and techniquesand propose some low-carbon land use pattern and development route to promoteregional low-carbon economic development.(1) Based on the IPCC greenhouse gasinventory and latest research results, this paper constructs carbon emission effectanalysis method, which is the base of carbon footprint calculation and land use carbonemission dynamic analysis.(2) This paper proposes model of temporal-spatialecological footprint, which is improved from six aspects, including balance factor andyield factor, land multi-function coefficient, temporal-spatial express, dynamicforecast function, carbon footprint, couple of social-economic index.(3)Based on theimproved temporal-spatial ecological footprint model, establishes low-carbon landuse evaluation model, puts up with low-carbon land use forecast method by means ofmathematical statistics model and stories forecast law, constructs low-carbon land useoptimization technique integrating fuzzy linear planning and CLUE-S model, selectsthe most optimal low-carbon land use program by the way of land suitabilityevaluation and landscape pattern analysis.(4)Taking Jinan as a case study, analyzes land use and coverage change, carbon emission and effect change, ecological footprinttemporal-spatial dynamic change, evaluates low-carbon land use development,forecasts land demand in2020, optimizes land use structure and spatial layout, selectsthe most optimal program. Finally, to promote regional low economic development,low urban construction, carbon emission reducing, the paper concludes somelow-carbon development path and patterns which are composed of land use structureadjustment, layout optimization, ecological environment district and low carbonmodes, consumption structure boot and ecological footprint reducing, low-carbonland use technology adopting, low-carbon land use guarantee mechanism improvedand so on.