Study On Reservoir Operation Hedging Rules For Economic And Ecologic Objectives

With the development of water use by human, the constructed projects including reservoirs have significantly affected or even replaced the natural hydrological processes of rivers. They have made significantly impact to the ecology and environment. Ecological and environmental problems due to the conflicts between human water use and the alteration of natural flow regime are increasingly serious.With the emerging ecological problems and the knowledge of human, the requirements on maintaining the integrity of structure and function of river ecosystem have gotten more attentions. How to improve the water resources management and reservoir operation model, balance the development of social and ecological systems has been an important issue for reservoir operation, which encourages us to develop a new approach to improve the conventional rules and models. Based on multi-objective analysis, this study focuses on the urban water prediction model established by data mining, the evaluation of river flow regime, and the effect of the uncertainty of reservoir inflow in the multi-objective models and expected to put forward a more rational model to enrich the theory and method of reservoir operation.First, this paper summarized the previous research of ecological water requirement,analyzed the main trends of academic routes and technical route. This research was based on reservoir operation rules-based model, including a new approach of indentifying the important factors from amount of factors of urban water use, urban water use prediction model based on data mining method. The urban water demand prediction model is used in the multi-objective model to calculate the economic objective. Second, this paper improved the method of calculating the ecological objective using indicators of hydrologic alteration. It shows the negative effect of water supply from the aspect of ecological integration. Third, a multi-objective hedging rule model considering both the social and ecological objectives was set up based on Vector Evaluated Genetic Algorithm. The curse of dimensionality, which often occurs in traditional optimization model because of multi-variables, is avoided through combing a linear release function. The multi-objective model provides the Pareto dominated solutions which are employed for analysis. Scenarios are discussed under theconditions of hydrological uncertainty. We compare the economic and ecologic results of Standard Operation Policy rule and multi-objective model. Besides, three types of the ecological objective functions are compared, while the value of hydrological prediction in reservoir operation is also evaluated.The urban water prediction model based on data mining approach, evaluation of the alteration of hydrologic indicators, and the multi-objective optimization models are applied in the operation of Baiguishan Reservoir of Huaihe River. The results show that the multi-objective hedging rule model improves the ecological objective while guarantees the water supply under most conditions and improves the solving ability in the optimization model. It can offer technological references for improving the utility of water resources management under competitive condition of water resources and uncertainty inflow.