Seismic Damage Prediction Method Of Subway Station Based On Component Failure Probability

Based on the failure process, failure criterion and damage grade of the subway station structure, this paper makes a deep research on the probability method of seismic damage prediction of subway station structure under a given ground motion. Firstly, the statistical analysis and numerical simulation of reinforced concrete members are analyzed. And according to the experimental results, the curvature distribution corresponding to crushed and ultimate failure state of the component cover concrete is analyzed. Based on which, the calculation method of failure probability of each damage grade of cross section of subway station structure is proposed. The relationship between the failure probability of components and the cross section is established, the calculation method and formula for the probability of each damage grade are given, and the probability method is introduced into the prediction of earthquake damage of subway station structure. The main research contents and innovations of this paper are as follows:1. A detailed investigation and summary on the damage of the subway is made, including seismic damage of subway stations and the tunnels in between. On the basis of this analysis, the main types of subway seismic damage and the particularity of the damage are analyzed. The failure characteristics of each part of subway station are summarized, and the main factors that affect the seismic damage of subway is analyzed.2. In comparison of the existing building structure failure criteria, and considering different types of earthquake damage of the subway station, according to the deformation failure criteria, the curvature expression of the failure criterion of the component is given.3. According to the standard of damage grade division of existing building structure, the recommended method of dividing the corresponding damage grade of the subway structure is given, and the quantitative standard of damage grade classification of the cross section of subway station is given.4. In the numerical simulation, there are some drawbacks such as the material parameters are generally considered as the experimental means, the analytical model of the application is simplified, and the numerical calculation method has a certain error and so on. Therefore, there may be differences between the analysis results and the real value. In order to reduce the difference, this article revises the input moment-curvature curve of simulation model based on the experimental values of reinforced concrete column of the Pacific earthquake center. As a result, a specific correction factor is given, and its validity is verified. The probability distribution function and its analysis method of damage grade of component is given, and its specfic calculation formula is given.5. Considering the quantitative standard of cross section damage grade of the subway station, and based on component damage probability calculation method, we have proposed probability calculation method and the corresponding formulas of each damage grade of subway station as a whole under a given earthquake.6. The specific steps of predicting the seismic damage of the existing subway station structure under a given ground motion is given, by using the quasi static and nonlinear dynamic analysis method. And the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified by examples.