| The author analyzed changes in meteorological factors, corn yield and potentialclimatic productivity, predicted the impact of future warming scenarios on corn yield,revealed the influence of future climate change on maize planting in Inner Mongolia. Inthis study, the establishment and application of maize yield estimation system based on“3S” technology (remote sensing, geographic information system and global positioningsystem) realized fast data collection and quantitative analysis of crop information,providing convenient means to extract corn planting area and to estimate yield over largearea in Inner Mongolia.1. Characteristics of climate resources in study areaSelected eight representative meteorological stations from maize planting regions inInner Mongolia, the author analyzed the trends of temperature and precipitation changesin the last50years (1961-2010), calculated the drought index, and demonstrated the thecorrelation between meteorological facors and maize yield. The main results are asfollows:(1) In the last50years, temperature in Inner Mongolia has been rising, withsignificant increase after1990s. From1961to2010, annual average temperature variedwithin a range of2-6℃in eastern Inner Mongolia, with the minimum temperature of2.32℃in1969and the highest temperature of5.95℃in2008; amplitude of variation inannual mean temperature in the western region was5-9℃, with the minimumtemperature of5.39℃in1968and the highest temperature of8.96℃in1998.(2) Precipitation varied with fluctuations in the last50years. It decreased in easternand western Inner Mongolia, with more rainfall in the east than in the west. Precipitationin the east in1998was the highest, with a record of565mm, while the highest in the westwas444mm in2003.(3) Compared with temperature, annual precipitation was significantly correlated tocorn yield, showing precipitation was the main constrain in corn production in InnerMongolia, especially in temperate warm region.2. Climate potential in corn production regions(1) According to Thornthwaite Memorial Model, climate productivity was muchhigher in the east than in the west. Climatic productivity in eastern and western InnerMongolia varied violently, but without significant downwards or upwards trends. Climatic productivity in the east was the highest in1998(8186.2kg/hm~2), the lowest in2001(5151.3kg/hm~2); while climatic productivity in the west was the highest in1961(7692.4kg/hm~2), the lowest in1965(2902.2kg/hm~2).(2) From1961to2010, yield variation range was4116-8011kg/hm~2in eastern InnerMongolia，it was5463-12727kg/hm~2in western Inner Mongolia. Planting area ofTongliao accounts for26.9%of the total planted area in Inner Mongolia; total yieldaccounts for29.8%of the total output；yield is6529.6kg/hm~2. These data showedTongliao was the largest corn production region in Inner Mongolia.3. Possible impacts of future climatic change on corn production in Inner MongoliaSurface temperature under the three future emission scenarios in the21st centuryincreases, the temperature is much higher in the east than in the west. Except thesituations at Hailaer under B2scenario (0.17℃lower than the standard period),temperature is0.77to0.77℃higher than the standard.Compared with temperature change, simulated precipitation is more complicated,with great difference in three emission scenarios. But on the whole, precipitation underA1B and A2emission scenarios in the west and the east of Inner Mongolia in the21stcentury increase with variation, but precipitation in the east is significantly higher than inthe west. Simulated precipitation increases with significant trends over time. Comparedwith the standard in1971-2000, precipitation is higher under A2scenario than under A1Band B1scenarios.4. Yield estimation model based on remote sensingThe author established yield estimation model based on remote sensing over theexperimental farm of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University. Error changes only in therange of0.30-3.69%, Estimation accuracy is very high. |
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