Weak Signal Analysis And Empirical Study From Cognitive Perspective

With the rapid development of science and technology in every area, people arefacing rapid and profound changes. How can recognize these changes more timelyhave become a problem. In order to adapt to these changes, people set a higherintelligence requirements in every area, mainly on the shorter time of producingintelligence. The rapid development of information technology, making intelligenceanalysts can quickly get a lot of information in the intelligence analysis process, andwhen faced with a flood of information intelligence analysts often find it is almostimpossible to find or can only find a small amount of useful information, and thendifficult to produce valuable information. Intelligence analysts often attributed thisdilemma to less useful information, but paid little attention to how to improve theirthinking process, and the ability to complete intelligence analysis tasks with lessinformation.The essence of intelligence analysis process is the information processing ofcognitive system, which is a mental process. Cognitive Psychology found that peopledid not realize that the vast majority process occur in the brain. Perception, memory,and information processing happened independently before people perceived them.Information processing capacity of the cognitive system determines the ability ofintelligence analysts. In the cognitive processing of information a variety of cognitivefactors affect the results of intelligence analysis. The factors that are rooted in thepsychological process are the most important and the most difficult to overcomefactors in all the impacting factors. Knowing how these cognitive affect the cognitiveprocessing of information helps intelligence analysts improving their capacity ofinformation processing, thus improving intelligence analysis capabilities to getvaluable information quickly. In addition to improving intelligence analysiscapabilities, changing intelligence analysis process also helps to get informationearlier. Some scholar has suggested to analysis early, vague "weak signal" to obtainvaluable intelligence earlier in the mid-1970s. Weak signals occur early, and properunderstanding for the signals helps people grasp the correct development trend ofthings, and take measures timely and accurately. A theoretical and empirical exploration was done on how to improve intelligencecapabilities of intelligence analysts and shorten the intelligence analysis process to getthe valuable information earlier in this study. In theory, objective and subjectivefactors that affect intelligence analysts on how to produce intelligence was explored.Subjectively, how to improve intelligence analysis capabilities from cognitivepsychology was explored. Objectively, the intelligence analysis process is built on aweak signal in the early initiative and in-depth analysis. The weak signal analysisprocess and weak signal analysis strategies were discussed from cognitive perspective,and the strategies on how to get valuable intelligence earlier and more quickly wereproposed. In empirical angle, the research results on how to improve intelligenceanalysis capabilities and the strategies on weak signal analysis from cognitiveperspective were applied to the early diagnosis of rare diseases. The process ofclinical diagnosis was analyzed from cognitive perspective, and the strategies on weaksignal analysis was introduced to the early detection of rare diseases to explore how toimprove the diagnostic capabilities for rare diseases by changing the cognitive factors,and propose diagnostic strategies from cognitive perspective, which may provide areference to doctors on earlier and more timely identification of rare diseases.Empirical study on radiation-associated breast angiosarcoma after breast cancerradiotherapy (RABASBCR) was done in this study, and strategies of early diagnosisand diagnostic criteria was proposed, which enriches the weak signal analysis theoryand applications from cognitive perspective. Theoretical and empirical research of thisstudy was provided a reference to intelligence analysts on re-examining the factorsaffecting the ability of intelligence analysis, changing intelligence analysis ideas,improving intelligence analysis capabilities, and improving vigilance for weak signalto find valuable information earlier.This research consists of three parts:In the first part, from systems theory and cognitive psychology perspective,drawing on cognitive psychology, information processing theory, cognitive loadtheory, cognitive schemata theory, attribution theory and other theories, the cognitivefactors impacting information processing of intelligence analysts were discussed, andthese factors were unified to intelligence cognitive schemata, which was discussed onthe structure, function and features. In the study, intelligence analysis processes,strategies and methods of intelligence analysis was explored from cognitiveperspective, cognitive factors impacting intelligence analysis capabilities of intelligence analysts were summarized and the methods to improve the ability ofintelligence analysts was proposed.In the second part, the causes of weak signal, weak signal analysis methods, thedifference of between week signal analysis and previous intelligence analysis process,and weak signals intelligence analysis process were explored from cognitiveperspective, and weak signal analysis strategies were proposed from cognitiveperspective. The characteristics and applications of the methods commonly used forweak signal analysis were summarized, and the selection strategy for these methodswas proposed. Analysis of Competitive Hypothesis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluationmethod and Bayesian evaluation method were explored further in empirical study. Adeeper understanding for the cognitive elements of weak signal analysis was obtained,and the methods to improve the ability of weak signal analysis were proposed.In the third part, the research results on how to improve intelligence analysiscapabilities and fulfil weak signal analysis from cognitive perspective were applied tothe diagnosis of diseases, discussed the cognitive factors that cause misdiagnosis andmistreatment of rare diseases, and explore the diagnosis process of rare diseases,cognitive characteristics of rare diseases, and diagnosis strategy for rare diseases,proposed methods on how to improve the diagnostic capabilities of rare diseases. Theresearch on RABASBCR was done as an empirical study of weak signal analysis inthis study, and strategies of early diagnosis and diagnostic criteria was established,which may help the early diagnosis of this disease and as a reference for the study ofsimilar diseases.