Tourism And Golf Industry Prediction By RFA And Copula In Hainan Province

Tourism is an important pillar industry of international island of Hainan. Mar-ket prediction is essential for tourism planning and design, especially for investmentdecision. It also do good to asset utilization ratio as well as healthy and vigorous de-velopment of junketing. There are two ways of prediction, one is finished by analysisof inffuencing factors, the other by finding its own laws. Key inffuencing factors wereselected. Based on Random Forest and Copula, Hainan travel industry was forecasted.Golf plays an essential role in transition from sightseeing to leisure tour. Nonlinear timeseries was applied to Golf estate prediction, as structured below:Firstly the national average disposable income of urban residents, fixed asset in-vestment, hotels numbers, road traffc mileage, railway traffc mileage, airplane traffcmileage and Golf holes in Hainan were picked out. Rank correlation coeffcients andmutual information indexes between Hainan tourism income and them were calculatedto order dependence. The function among them was fitted by Random Forest and vari-able importance was computed. The result showed that the national average disposableincome has the most inffuence on travel income and hotel number came second.Secondly the Copula of five key factors was fitted as Frank Copula. Combiningwith Random Forest fitted function between tour income and inffuencing factors, prob-ability distribution function of future income was simulated by Monte Carlo. VaR andconditional VaR were figured out. It appeared that tour gainings in Hainan in 2012 has80% probability to exceed 29.5 billion, while 20% probability to exceed 31 billion.Thirdly Golf club in BFA International Convention Center was taken as an examplefor Golf estate forecasting. Independence and nonlinear tests are finished on logarithmdifference transformation data. ARMA(3,2) was taken as last model by autocorrelationfunction, partial correlation function and AIC criterion. Parameters were estimated us-ing maximum likelihood estimation. The mean and 95% confidence interval of Monthlyrevenues in Boao golf club were predicted.