Default Risk Recognition And Measurement For Logistics Service Supply Chain

Modern Logistics Emphasis on providing a systematic&integrated Logistics services based on fully integrating the internal and external Logistics resources. From the perspective of service operations, Logistics service system can also be considered as networks of complex contracts among the owners of Logistics resources (including Functional LogisticsService Providers and Integrated Logistics Service provider). Cooperation or transaction need contracts to constraint, and credit is the basis for cooperation; However, lack of credit awareness, national credit management system not perfect, poor social credit environment, the lack of punishment mechanism to credit Conviction, which not only increases the transaction costs of logistics services, but also triggers an enormous of default risk to parties of logistics services transaction, and of default. Meanwhile, China is a developing economy, it imposes some restrictions on the market maturity, stage of industry development and credit environment construction, and there is greater volatility for external market environmenint, so default risk management is more challenging.From the scientific point of view, most researches about Logistics default risk are on the perspective of Logistics or physical Logistics supply chain. But the former often separate the correlation between companies (eg, business association, debt-related), and then ignore the default correlation triggered by enterprise relationship(for example, a common external environment can lead to cause and effect contagion of default, and the business transactions between enterprises would lead to default contagion); The latter, based on the physical Logistics supply chain, because the system itself involves the main ones, complex structure, a number of risk factors, it is difficult to accurately identify the specific risk factors of Logistics services. This article choosed Logistics Service Supply Chain, often called’LSSC’ for short, complexity between a single Logisticsenterprise and the physical supply chain, as the object, and selected default relation as the main line, to studied default risk recognition and measurement. For that reason, this dissertation choosed Logistics Service Supply Chain, often called’LSSC’ for short, complexity between a single Logistics enterprise and the physical supply chain, as the object, based on the perspective of risk-sharing and benefits socialization of relevant subject, and selected default correlation as the main line, built a new identification and measurement framework for logistics service supply chain risk default risk. Analysying the formation and transmission mechanism of default risk by complexity science and default correlation theory; identifying related factors of default risk by sample and statistical analysis method, and modeling default correlation and default contagion effects by information economics, game theory, and econometric methods. And then built default risk measurement framework system based on the "three-stage process" as follows:The first stage is to measure default risk of LSSC members, which are the basis and the key. In order to make the model become accurate, the article respectively established default risk models of LSSC members based on traditional models (Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation) and modern model (KMV model); The second stage is to measure the risk of members’default contagion, article drews lessons from related researches about credit portfolio risk, and measures the risk of cause contagion and default contagion step by step; The third stage, based on the contract relation, the article selects joint default probability as model target, China’s Logistics business credit rating information and Moody’s default data as parameters, build a measure overall model for LSSC default risk with Copula function.The subject of this dissertation from the management of Logistics practices and the development of modern Logistics needs, while adopting a more scientific and empirical research to identify the key risk factors, effects and measurement framework of default risk in LSSC. This study can not only compensate for lack of pure theoretical research and built default risk management theory and methodology with Chinese characteristics, and also can greatly enhance the application value of research, as well as help relevant organizations more accurately and effectively identify, assess and guard against default risk.