Research On The Optimization Of Foreign Exchange Reserve Structure In Post-crisis Era

Huge foreign exchange reserves improve our credit rating and solvency ,but at the same time increasing cost of holding foreign exchange reserves and pressure on macroeconomic policy external balance of macroeconomic policy. This article stands the point of the subprime crisis on China s foreign exchange reserve impact, makes a comprehensive to analysis China s foreign exchange reserve risk in crisis era and the management structure adjustment.This paper firstly on basis of previous financial crisis and the present situation of Chinese foreign exchange reserves,combined with 2007 outbreaks of global new financial crisis, explores the new characteristics of global financial crisis and the new trend of development of Chinese foreign exchange reserves in the crisis of the era,matting for exploring China s foreign exchange reserve external risk after crisis times at a later stage. Mainly from the evolution of the subprime crisis, the conduction process; new features of the subprime crisis and the global financial crisis within the new association,including financial structure, public debt ratio, rising house prices decline, the current account deficit,and so on; the influencing factor of foreign exchange reserve source structure and foreign exchange reserves investment;excess reserves of negative effects.Secondly,this paper uses asset-liability ratio、GARCH model、LA-VAR、Macaulay durationanalysis method and measuring tool to analysis comparatively external risk of Chinese foreign exchange reserve in times of latter crisis era. Which found that in addition to external risk of Chinese foreign exchange reserve was severe in post crisis situation,because China s foreign exchange reserves highly dependent on subprime crisis-related financial assets of the U.S. and Europe, China’s foreign exchange reserves and a number of leading financial institutions in the financial crisis suffered large losses.Thirdly, this paper uses positive analysis method to analyzes moderate size target area of foreign exchange reserves based on foreign exchange reserve theory and Agarwal model .Results shows that debt of foreign exchange reserves was mainly due to increased direct and indirect result of increased demand for debt,and led to increase of demand of foreign exchange reserves. After 2001, Our country foreign exchange reserve scale has increased dramatically,foreign exchange reserves exceeded the moderate range, and the degree of deviation from the moderate range is growing. Beginning in 2004, began to clear the excess part of the widening, and the excess has begun to exceed the maximum holding size.Fourthly,this paper bases on two perspective :trading、intervention goal and risk return objective of excess part. Using transaction analysis and mean - variance analysis analyzes appropriate target zone of reserve currency, Which considers China’s exchange rate system, foreign trade structure, the currency structure of external debt, foreign direct investment source structure and other factors. In final,this paper reaches China’s foreign exchange reserves a reasonable reserve currency structure in times of latter crisis era.Through analysis,this paper hold that diverse, multi-foot full pattern is conducive to maintain currency stability in China’s foreign exchange reserves.Finally, on basis of analysis our country foreign exchange reserve moderate scale target area and the currency arrangement moderate target area foundation,this paper analyzes the foreign exchange reserve management system of other countries and management objectives,management model,management strategy of operating system to work on that we should adopts which mode of administration to realize our country foreign exchange reserve effectiveness maximization use and how to realize the foreign exchange reserve asset investments multiplication strategy to unify the overall strategy of the country development.