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Research On Technology Innovation Model Of Electric Vehicle

Posted on:2013-02-21Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:B BaiFull Text:PDF
GTID:1229330374487025Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
In recent years, with the sustained growth of national economy, the automobile industry has become a pillar industry in China. Due to its low resource consumption and little environmental pollution as well as other features, the electric vehicle has gradually become one of the new energy cars that all countries competed to develop. Compared with the traditional mature technology of low risk and low uncertainty, electric vehicle is still an emerging technology. Its R&D activities and market investment are in the initial stage of exploration, with high risk and high uncertainty. At present, the selection and implementation of technological innovation mode has become the major factor for the future development of electric car industry in China. However, the existing research cares less about how enterprises quantitatively choose the innovation model and how to carry on the investment decision under such model. In order to make up the deficiency of present study, based on the real option method and technological innovation theory, the paper studies China’s electric car industry on the selection and implementation of technological innovation mode and related problems, and reveals how companies select innovation mode and make investment decision according to their own innovation capability parameter.The paper focuses on the following three aspects:(1) Based on the knowledge capacity feature of three innovation models, Nash Bargaining Solution is introduced to select technological innovation game model. Based on innovation difficulty, and various options obtained return, enterprises can select three strategies:original innovation, cooperative innovation and imitative innovation.(2) Using the real option method to establish investment decision mode for enterprises under each innovation model. In order to make clear the investment decision condition for enterprises, they can make full use of the option value generated from uncertainty, and select optimal investment opportunity in a flexible way, according to obtained uncertain information in the R&D and industrialization phase.(3) Selects BYD as a representative electric car industry for research, by using the method of numerical calculation, verifies the accuracy of three established investment decision-making model in the practice, and puts forward security measures for the achievement of electric car technology at China’s present stage.Through research on technological innovation models and investment decision-making process, the paper obtains the following conclusions:(1)Through the hypothesis of enterprises’innovation ability parameter and introducing the behavioral game theory and Nash bargaining solution, the paper obtains innovation revenues for enterprise under each model. Revenue gained under imitative innovation model and cooperative innovation model is greater than that under original innovation model, so enterprises will not select original innovation model when the cooperative innovation or imitative innovation can be carried out. When the revenue from cooperative innovation is greater than that from imitative innovation, enterprises will select cooperative innovation in order to pay less technology transaction costs. When the ratio between project R&D cost and project value is small, enterprises will select imitative innovation, because the right for profits distribution is relatively small if select cooperative innovation. But along with the technical accumulation, original innovation capability parameter increases when enterprises undertaking imitative and cooperative innovation, and when the original innovation revenue surpasses the cooperative innovation, enterprises will undertake original innovation. In addition, in selection of cooperative innovation partners, enterprises will choose to cooperate with companies that have relatively high innovation capability parameter. After technology transferring to enterprises with low original innovation capability, the transferring enterprises can receive more patent transfer fee through negotiation.(2)Using real option method to establish investment decision-making model under original innovation, imitative innovation and cooperative innovation, critical value of investment in every stage under innovation model is obtained. The result shows:in the industrialization stage of original innovation, the optimal investment time for enterprises is when project value firstly reaches or exceeds the critical value; in the R&D stage, the optimal R&D time for enterprises is when project option value reaches or firstly exceeds the R&D cost. In the industrialization stage, R&D stage and stage under cooperative innovation, the optimal investment time is when the product price exceeds the corresponding critical product price in each stage. Enterprises can carry on the follow-up investment stage work as long as the product price exceeds the critical value in the introduction phase. The optimal investment time for enterprises in the imitative innovation is when the product price firstly reaches or exceeds the optical critical investment value, while the optimal market entry time is when the project price reaches or exceeds the critical value.(3)Through research on investment decision of technology innovation project by BYD Ltd., the result shows that the optimal investment decision time under the three models consists with that of theoretical model. In the industrialization stage of original innovation, the increase of volatility and risk-free interest rate will cause the increase of project critical value. In the introduction stage of cooperative innovation, the critical value of unit price increases along with the volatility; the option value will increase and the critical value of unit price will decrease when the expected price growth rate increases; the option value will decrease and the critical value of unit price will increase when risk free interest rate increases. In the R&D stage of imitative innovation, when the product cost coefficient is constant and jumping degree increases, the successful R&D time will occur ahead of time and the project price will drop. When the product cost coefficient is stable, critical value of project price will increase. Quality improves, which means the success rate increases, the successful R&D time will occur ahead of time and the critical value of project price will drop.
Keywords/Search Tags:real option, technology innovation, investment strategy, electric vehicle technology, innovation mode
PDF Full Text Request
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