Research On Housing Consumption-investment Demand Formation Mechanism And Differentiated Policies

Housing is closely related to family life and an important part of the familyproperty. Once there are some problems in the housing market, the national economicstability and social security will be harmed seriosly. In recent years, most cities of thecountry appeared real estate industry overheated, excessive housing investment andspeculation, and even real estate bubble. Under this background, our country has issueda series of housing policy to encourage housing consumption demand and curbspeculative investment demand as the core content which put foaword a new topic to thedomestic academia. How to define the housing consumption demand, speculativeinvestment demand, and how to encourage the housing consunption demand while atthe same time curb the housing investment even speculative demand is the key to thepolicy and theoretical and eager to be solved. Then how to to understand the housingconsumption-investment demand, the formation mechanism and influence factors is thekey to solve the series of problem.The paper found there is very rare to study about the housing demand of consumerdemand and investment demand separately on the reviewing of the domestic and foreigndemand housing basis research. Most scholars focus on applied research does notinvolve or rarely involve the basic theory, so that empirical research can not providetheoretical guidance for solving practical problems. Therefore, this article taking thedefinition of housing consumption-investment demand and their related concepts as thestarting point, discussed the utility and prospect theory problem involved in the processof individual family housing choice behavior. And the paper also difined the certaintyand uncertainty about the expectation and put forward two important theorems in thetheoretical analysis which include the investment benefit and cost utility. On this basis,this paper introduced the economy expectation varibles to the housing consumption andinvestment demand model, and determined the impact of the endogenous variables inthe exogenous variables by applying the comparative static analysis. This would bepossible to provide a theoretical basis for the empirical research.On the basis of the housing consumption-investment demand theoretical analysis,the independent variables of housing consumption demand function, housinginvestment demand function, as well as housing sub-tenure choice function can be moreeasily determined out. The difficulty lays in the independent variable data collection andcalculation methods, for which the design of the questionnaire survey method for thevariables of the economy expectation is explored in the housing selection process ofindividual family. In the support of full variable data, the paper estimated the functionsof housing consumption and housing investment as well as housing sub-tenure choice inthe application of housing hedonic method, weighted least squares, and probit model. The results show that the theoretical result in the empirical analysis in the paper can beverified, and get further independent variable on the dependent variable the effects ofelasticity and coefficient.The policy of "encouraging housing consumption demand and curbing speculativehousing investment demand" is not only the original intention of this paper but also isthe destination. At present, China’s local governments are more commonly blindlytaking the "one size fits all" type of housing demand control policies, without fullyconsidering the situation and development trend of the different cities about the housingconsumption demand and housing investment demand. Combinating the theoreticalresearch and empirical analysis which already have been done in this paper, thedifferentiated status and developemt trendence of housing consumption-investmentdemand, the differentiated population charicteristics of families, and the differentiatedgradient of investment are summed up. Applying the "average man" theory andstochastic dominance theory, the paper combinated the microcosmic research results ofhousing consumption-investment demand with the macroscopic policy regulation, andsolved the problem of unobservable and undistinguishable of housing consumption andinvestment demand.Finally, on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of differentiated housingconsumption and investment demand and the corresponding policy control sysytem, thepaper put forward the corresponding policy target and policy tools and studied on thedifferrntiated policied for the demand of housing consumption and investment, then putforward some policies and suggestions about the six sample survey cities includingPeiking, Shanghai, Harbin, Chongqing, Xian, and Wenzhou.