Analysis On Forecasting Supply And Demand Of Natural Gas In China

Along with the increasingly frequent extreme climate, people begin to realize the importance of environment and pay more attention to the influence of energy using. Therefore, there are more regulations to the cleanliness and efficiency of primary energy. Natural gas, as the lowest carbon emission and relatively high efficiency energy among fossil energy, is strengthened in the economic society day by day. According to statistics, from year2000to2010, the amount of natural gas consumption within China has been increased at an average annual growth rate of16%which makes natural gas become the energy with fastest growing rate.In order to meet the increasingly demand of natural gas, several domestic oil companies ramp up efforts to explore natural gas, to sign contracts to import natural gas, and to expand massive construction. Meanwhile, domestic pipe systems are going to be progressively fulfilled. However, the growth of supply capability should match with the growth of demand. Otherwise, it would be in the situation with imbalance between supply and demand. So that to predict natural gas supply and demand analysis and the demand of different kinds of consumers draw the most attention.This thesis conducts the scientific research. In the research of natural gas supply and demand analysis, summarizes the feature of natural gas, gas sector and China and foreign countries’ natural gas market. Researching on the gas demand side and analyzing the relation of the development of gas market, industry structure adjustment and sustainable development. In the research of forecasting natural gas demand, with the base of statistical data, with the theories and methods in mathematics, economy, management and some other subjects, with the correct calculation, the conclusion is made as accurate and efficient as possible. Furthermore, this thesis uses the systematic dynamic theory to study the model of gas market, analyses the internal relationship between these components of gas market. At last, use the result of natural gas supply and demand analysis, by learning other departments’ experience and methods, the goals, targets and measures of managing demand side are proposed to adapt to natural gas development, which implemented the theory systemic and applicability.Chapter1is an introduction part. It provides background information, significance of the research, and briefly introduces international research status and tendency of natural gas demand forecast and demand side management. It also introduces the goal of research and main content.Chapter2introduces the fundamental features of natural gas and natural gas industry. Starting from the primary properties of natural gas, it reveals the immense potential of natural gas at present stage and also in future energy structure. It’s also become a important energy to the sustainable development of society and economy. What’s more, it summarizes the characteristic of the natural gas industry chain, technical-economic, industrial characteristics, cost and value in the upper, middle and lower segments.Chapter3analyses the situation of natural gas supply and demand. It further analyzes the supply and demand in China and foreign countries’ natural gas market. Unearth the specialty of China natural gas market. It also study about the essential requirements in order to make equalization of supply and demand market in our country. Meanwhile, it analyzes the natural gas demand side specialty that in all kinds of different customers, including use way, influencing factor, law of use gas, affordable ability and others. This chapter also analyzes mechanism interact on the industry structure of natural gas market,put forward natural gas market strategy of ensure social and economic sustainable development.Chapter4establishes4types single model of natural gas demand. By using CGE model, energy intensity model, ARMA model and gray system model respectively, the natural gas demand in year2015and2020is predicted. Otherwise, this paper gives a prediction on natural gas demand between the two lakes.Chapter5comes up with a combined model for natural gas demand forecast. Based on those4types single model mentioned in last chapter, the combined forecasting theory and information entropy theory are used to further build a combination forecast model which strengthened the accuracy and efficiency of forecast. This combined model makes the results more persuasive. It predicts that in year2015and2020, the demand for natural gas will be224billion cubic meters and389.4billion cubic meters separately. Meanwhile, the Monte Carlo method is used in this paper, research the uncertain predicted value of natural gas demand, finds out a new method of combining forecast.Chapter6studies natural gas market model based on system dynamics.By the system dynamics, systematic analyzing the fundamental assumption and influencing factor of natural gas market.Build up a natural gas market model,which provide the foundation for investigating market ration.Chapter7bases on the result of natural gas demand forecast, suppy and demand analysis, study in China energy strategy, integrate resource planning and natural gas demand side management. Research on demand side management measures at home and abroad, which may bring along the consider income, social and environmental benefit. From the way of integrate resource planning and demand side management reduce costs and increase efficiency, have conclude that demand side management reduce costs and increase efficiency, which is called Cannikin Law, low cost and pre-empt resources, intrinsic motivation and economy of scope. Through the practice implement demand side management, milestone, difference, action projects and other key elements,which are need in a technology roadmap of implement demand side management.In Chapter8, it generalizes the conclusion from viewpoint.and develops the future study trends..