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Transparency Of Accouning Information,Analysts Earnings Forecasts And Synchronicity Of Stock Price Volatility

Posted on:2011-04-30Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:W B XiangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1229330395473030Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The Stock market basic function is using the stock price signal mechanism to optimize the disposition resources reasonably, the guidance scarce resources realizes the greatest investment repayment. In addition, one good Stock market is also helpful for displaying the entrepreneurial spirit as well as realizes all people’s together enrichment. However, In market from Chinese Stock, it does not struggle nearly to reality that it through universal "To kill an evil poor man, and take their property to help the rich" intensified this already very serious gap between rich and poor greatly; so long as go on being list, the major stockholder and the manager could sudden wealth; It optimize unusually the disposition resources reasonably, so that wasted greatly. The Chinese Stock market degenerates into one purely gambling establishment nearly that throw over the legitimate coat, it is the common holder’s meat grinder, simultaneously,it is also the so-called social strong trend character’s wealth heaven. The paper attempts to solve some problem, the breakthrough point is the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility.Since that the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility has been high enough and that transparency of accounting information is not very high is puzzles China capital market two big thorny realistic difficult problems in a long time, it also is widely paid attention to the research two big difficult theory question in the financial circles, altogether rises or falls, Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility highly synchronization’s Chinese Stock market is obviously barely satisfactory on the price discovery and the foundation resources deployment of Stock market major function’s performance. In the many factors that have effect on Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility, the transparency of accounting information is important without doubt. A universal fact is when company’s transparency of accounting information is low and the company exterior people gain accounting information’s cost is excessively high, the investor will make the revered choice in the information inferiority, They are no longer willing to spend the excessively much time and the cost collect each company’s information, but is used to confuses the high quality company and the inferior company, and takes the entire market’s mean quality as the single company value judgment basis, so that produces similar result that Archer Luff so-called "the lemon market" or "the bad money pursuit good money". In this "the lemon market", the stock price rises and falls with altogether, the company special characteristic information contains content which is very low in the stock price.In view of the fact that the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility is the financial circles’ important concept in the nearly ten remaining years, this article first makes a more analysis to their connotation, then, with the aid of the related classics economical management science theory, inquiries into the two, particularly between the two’s relation.Analysts play roles of customer of the financial report information and the financial forecast information supplier in the modern capital market(Schipper,1991; Cain Xiang, Li Zhen, Zhang Weiguo,2003), considered relation between the analysts earnings forecast and the transparency of accounting information and they are in the influence of Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility’s mutual connection, the paper also research the analyst earnings forecast.The paper selects2001-2006years all the list firms in the Shenzhen and Shanghai SEC as sample, takes earnings as the company information transparency the main measuring index, based on it, inquisiting the transparency of accounting information influence on Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility. In order to deeper research, the paper base on the system environment and the earnings management, select the accounting standards significant exchange, the system of ownership difference, the achievement changes three variables, study transparency of accounting information and Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility relativity change under its influence. Moreover, considered the analyst earnings forecast with the two’s close relations between transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility, the paper also empirically analysis analysts relation between earnings forecast accuracy and Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility, as well as relevant influence of transparency of accounting information on analysts earnings forecast accuracy and Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility.The paper is divided eight chapters;each chapter of content arrangement is as follows:The first section is introduction. This section main introduction paper research background and research significance, research mentality and method, research content and frame, research important key and difficulty and this article possible innovation and limitation.The first chapter is literature review. First, for the transparency of accounting information, the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility as well as the relevant aspect’s foreign language literature between transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility has been carried on the review; Next, is similar with the foreign language literature review’s way, this chapter has carried on the review to the domestic related literature;Finally, this chapter has carried on the commentary to the domestic and foreign literature, had pointed out the related literature’s merit and the deficiency.The second chapter is outline of transparency of accounting information and Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility. Mainly elaborated the transparency of accounting information connotation, the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility connotation, and the transparency of accounting information measured method as well as the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility measured method.The third chapter is transparency of accounting information and synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility rationale. The main excavation with the transparency of accounting information, the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility related basic theory, and contacting.The fourth chapter proposed for relationship of theoretical analysis and the supposition of the transparency of accounting information and the stock price fluctuation synchronization. This chapter first has carried on the discussion to relation of the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility. To be thorough the research, after this chapter, takes several important environmental factors the variable, has carried on the analysis to correlational dependence of the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility.The fifth chapter is real diagnosis examination relationship for transparency of accounting information and stock price fluctuation synchronization. First this chapter has selected during2001-2006years from the GTA database Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange listed firms as the primary election sample, has proven the remarkable inverse correlation relations of transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility; Then compared through2001-2006years with2007-2009year data’s return, had proven correlational dependence of the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility could be more significant under the new accounting system; Furthermore, this chapter finally take the ownership nature the company as an angle of view, has discussed under the different control personal nature background the correlational dependence of transparency of accounting information and between the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility; Finally, embarks from the company performance proves correlational between transparency of accounting information and Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility in the different achievement situation.The sixth chapter is base on the transparency of accounting information’s angle of view, analyzed the relations between analysts earning forecast accurate and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility. This chapter will think transmit the accounting information to the capital market as facilitating agency’s analysts, it will be worth discussing, whether the analyst earnings forecast can transmit partly the accounting information outward in the future. This chapter has carried on certain proof to this question.The seventh chapter has proven that the accuracy of analysts earnings forecast is not closer with the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility correlational dependence with the transparency of accounting information enhancement from the empirical angle, this conclusion had indicated the analysts existence is only to an transparency of accounting information, it does not have substitution effect.The eighth chapter to summarize for the full paper includes studies the conclusion and the policy suggestion.The paper research result as following:(1) Along with the transparency of accounting information’s enhancement, the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility obviously reduces. The listed firms exist information asymmetrical situation, the investor will have "the reversion choice" behavior, because judges is difficulty on which is high grade, which list firms has the value of each contribution, which the list firms are low quality, which cannot be invested, when do the investor makes the investment decision, it often can only act according to the entire market the list firms’mean quality to decide which is willing to invest price, but this is precisely one kind of typical reversion choice behavior, it result "the bad money pursuit good money" inevitably, and causes the low quality of the list firms flood in the stock market. Further, the collection of information will become no benefits to be gained, thus it causes the investor no longer to spend excessively energy and the cost to collects each company’information, that confuses the good company and the bad company causes the price signals transmission mechanism malfunction finally in the entire stock market. Therefore, the decision of stock price fluctuation no longer change with the company core value related special characteristic information change; it is the entire market information change. Therefore, the special characteristic information content will reduce, and presents the high synchronism in the stock price fluctuation. Vice versa, if enhances the transparency of accounting information, then it can achieve goal through a series of signal conduction mechanism reduces the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility.(2) Compares accounting system in2007year ago, correlation between the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility inverse are more significant under the new accounting system.2007year later, with comprehensive promotion implemented in the list firms our country take introduced the fair value measurement attribute and the primary cover new accounting standards.it is enhancing business accounting information quality, it enhance business finance transparency, it provides the financial accounting report user more reliable and related accounting information and so on, the new criterion played the very vital role. While the transparency of accounting information also to be strengthen, enhance common investor reading interest in financial information. Along with new accounting standards’ realization, the accounting information is valued by more and more investors in the capital market. Investor accord to the accounting information which disclosed the list firms, and differentiates "the good company" and "the bad company", then chooses "the good company" to invest, therefore, under new accounting standards, Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility to transparency of accounting information counter-strain even more sensitively.(3) The list firms controls personal nature has an significant effect on relation of transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility. The so-called State-owned firms which control by the country or all levels of the government has a series of malpractices, for instance, state-owned shares "alone big" and owner’s actual vacancy; Because the state-owned list firms load bearing central committee or Local authority’s multiple goals, such as the development of economy, the guaranteed employment, maintained the social stability and so on, it caused the state-owned list firms to be serious by the government intervention, the profit goal was not explicit; in order to gain the resources in the capital market, the Local authority has participates positively the impulsion in the list firms earnings management, they often carry on the tax preference and the fiscal subsidy, So that not only has caused the tax affairs competition phenomenon, but also twisted the accounting information enormously and so on, In brief, because State-owned firms’ owner "the vacancy" cause its correlation are not significant between transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility, i.e. the transparency of accounting information is not obvious to influent the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility. But because little has the State-owned business universal existence serious government question in Private enterprise, the transparency of accounting information reduces the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility function quite to be relatively obvious.(4) With the achievement rise, correlation between the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility is first elevates gradually, latter presents the tendency which decreases gradually, it is one kind of but actually "U" relations. Generally speaking, the good achievement’company often has the enthusiasm to enhance the transparency of accounting information outward, and strengthens its reported earnings the confidence level, avoids the stock to underestimate by the market (Grossman and Hart,1980; Milgrom,1981; Inchausti,1997); But the achievement bad list firms will possibly reduce the accounting information the disclosure to cover loses money or the achievement slides, as far as possible let the stock overestimate by the market. However, compares with the achievement bad company, the achievement good company has less motives to reduce the transparency of accounting information, basing on the earnings management angle, in a long time, The company long-term earnings management’s capital market agent mainly lies in through the steady earnings strengthens the investor to company’s confidence. Because the earnings fluctuation oversized will bring the unsafe feeling to the people, enterprise’s regulatory authority in order to attract more funds, and will carry on the earnings management, will replenish the weak from the strong, that stable or will be steady and rising by the income will make the human maintains the confidence to the enterprise. Therefore, the company performance is excessively good or difference, similarly possibly carries on the achievement operation, and causes the information whose environment is relatively bad to disclose, therefore relatively are also few the company stock price’s special characteristic information, because the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility enhances. The trend along with the achievement growth, inverse correlated relations between the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility’s presents first strengthens then weakens.(5)There are significant inverse correlation Analysts earnings forecast accurate and Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility, the ordinary investor based on same accountant as well as other aspect’s information, takes the capital market important information intermediary, the analysts may use its specialized knowledge and the information search processing relative superiority, provides to the capital market many the special value information. In fact, the analysts are able to use its effective collection of information way and specialized analysis ability for obtaining "exceed the quota the information" as the specialized analysis staffs. the measure processing to forecast the income again after These useful information enter the analysts, thus the analysts forecast’s income takes one kind of increase accounting information and it is advantageous in increases in the capital market company’s special characteristic information, it reduces the stock price fluctuation the synchronism.(6)Along with the enhancement of transparency of accounting information, the inverse correlation relations significance reduces gradually between the analyst’s earnings forecasts and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility. Along with the enhancement of corporate accounting information transparency, the investor will have further feel that increasing information chain will cause the distortion of information, therefore they will pay more attention to the information which the company disclosed directly. Thus, compared to the analyst’s earnings forecast information, the influence which transparency of corporate’s accounting information acts on the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility influence will gradually increase. And then along with the enhancement of accounting information’s transparency, the correlation between the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility and the accuracy of analysts’earnings forecast relatively will gradually weaken.The result of the empirical study which this paper did confirms the conclusion above one by one.This Paper possible mainly makes the following two innovation:(1) Because of the important status of the controller’s nature in the corporate governance structure, this paper finally do the research on the relationship between transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility from the angle of ultimate controller, proposed and proves the influence which the nature of ultimate controller make on the interdependency between confrontation transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility. Considering that Chinese new accounting standards have implemented for three years, there is data examination feasibility of the correlational dependence between transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility of the situations under new and former accounting standards systems. This paper has conducted the contrast research on the interdependency between transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility under the situations of new and old accounting standards system, proposes and proves the influence which the new accounting standards system makes on the interdependency between the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility. Because of the universal existence of company internal earnings management, this paper also does research on the influence which company internal earnings make on the interdependency between the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility, then proposed and has proven the influence which company performance makes on the interdependency between the transparency of accounting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility.(2) Because of the importance and attention of the analysts earnings forecast information, this paper also does the research on the interdependency among the transparency of accounting information, the analysts’ forecasting information and the Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility, and confirmed that analysts earnings forecast cannot carry on the substitution to the transparency of accounting information, and at the same time provied a counter-evidence of the unshakeable core position of the transparency of accounting information in the capital market.
Keywords/Search Tags:Transparency of Accounting Information, Analysts earnings forecasts, Synchronicity of Stock Price Volatility
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