The Research Of Residents’ Consumption Cyclical Fluctuations In China

The aim of development production is to consumption, and consumption is also in order to makethe implementation of the production better. Consumption is the purpose and motivation of economicdevelopment; it had already been clarified in Marx’s theory. Consumption is an important part of thecountry’s economy, from to satisfy people’s material and cultural needs, consumption is the fundamentalforce to promote the growth of economy. Although economic growth accelerated in recent years,consumption, has become one of the most stable only promote economic growth of power factor,overall consumption growth still faces many problems, its root cause lies in the deep-seated problemsaffect consumption growth. Insufficient effective demand, especially consumer demand shortagebecame the main obstacle of China’s economy healthy and stable development.Research of domestic consumer demand volatility and periodicity of residents in our country andour country’s economic growth has important practical significance. First, be help to promote ourcountry macro-economic cycle system. China’s main macroeconomic indicators is gross domesticproduct (GDP), the volatility is main research is the study of GDP fluctuation cycle, through the studyof volatility can promote consumer demand in China macroeconomic factors of fluctuations in China’sconstruction and development. Second, be help to from a new Angle to understand the characteristics ofthe economic cycle fluctuation, help on the relationship between the economic cycle fluctuation andconsumption cycle, the relationship between economic growth and consumption have a newunderstanding. Third, be help maintain stable and level of consumption of consumers. According to thedifferent consumption of urban and rural residents cycle characteristics, for effective consumer policy,keep the steady increase in the consumer level.Based on a large number of gathering and a careful check, on the basis of existing research resultsat home and abroad, in different stages since the founding of the Chinese residents’ consumption ofcollecting and sorting data, summed up the total consumption residents in our country in various stagesof development, urban residents and rural residents consumption cycle volatility characteristics;Contrast consumption fluctuations and the characteristics of the economic cycle fluctuation, fluctuationwere studied, the correlation; According to consumption curve fluctuations inherent factors, study ourcountry’s consumption fluctuation curve wavelength, amplitude, paths, expansion and contraction, etc.Classification method according to the statistical yearbook, respectively studies of urban residents, ruralresidents’consumption fluctuation characteristics and the comparison between international. On thisbasis, construct econometric model, cointegration and error correction model to measure thecointegration relationship between consumption and economic growth. Use consumption theory toanalyze the cause of consumer cyclical fluctuations, finally this article research conclusion and putforward countermeasures and Suggestions.The text is divided into seven chapters.First chapter is introduction; first of all, the paper selected topic background, points out that theconsumption status in China and the current economic situation, for the full text writing indicates thenecessity of research, in-depth analysis of the articles of theoretical significance and practicalsignificance. Second, from the existence of the consumption cycle, cycle for consumption, consumptionand other economic variables and the relationships between consumption cycle on the fluctuation of theeconomy as a whole four aspects has carried on the literature review to domestic and foreign researchresults, this paper summarizes the current research status of the consumption cycle, as this paper pointedout the direction of the research priorities and goals. Third, elaborated the paper research ideas, researchmethods and innovation points and deficiencies.Chapter2Introduces the limited rational thought, the theoretical model and the theory significanceand value.Consumers cyclical fluctuations cause mechanism analysis, in accordance with the internaland external factors and running mechanism, analysis of income, price, consumer expectations andeconomic fluctuations on cyclical fluctuations impact on residents’ consumption.Chapter3is the analysis of the characteristics of consumption cycle, starting from this chapter, thetotal demand of consumption in China in accordance with the planned economy stage after theestablishment, the primary stage of market economy, market economy stage to do concrete analysis.Measure of economic fluctuations in China’s GDP growth rate, by the same token, this article USES theconsumer demand growth rate as the index of consumption cycle. Section1, by looking at past Chinastatistical yearbook, calendar year after the founding of China’s consumption growth rate data into a graph, phased analysis system under the condition of different consumption cycle characteristics andlaws. In the second quarter, comparing consumption cycle fluctuation curve with GDP curve,analysising of correlation between economic fluctuation and consumption cycle. In the third quarter,according to the study of the economic cycle research paradigm, namely according to the study of thecharacteristics of the economic cycle index research consumption cycle paths, wavelength andamplitude, expansion and contraction. Fourth quarter, comparison the cycle of consumption in Chinaand typical developed countries, developing countries, comparative analysis the differences ofconsumption cycle consumption in China and other countries.The fourth chapter analysis of the periodic characteristics of urban and rural residents’ consumption.This chapter from the perspective of urban and rural duality divided into different consumer demand tostudy urban and rural residents cycle type, wavelength and amplitude, expansion and systoliccharacteristics, and compare their volatility relations with economic cycle fluctuation.Fifth chapter our country residents’ consumption fluctuations with foreign residents’ consumptionof comparative study. This chapter our country the residents’ consumption fluctuations and typicalrepresentative of developing countries and developed countries of comparison, fluctuation in residents’consumption is obtained respectively with the developed countries and developing countries similaritiesand differences existing in the residents’ consumption fluctuations.Sixth chapter our country consumption cycle and the cointegration analysis of macro economiccycle, first introduced the cointegration theory, the principle of error correction model and grangercausality test, cointegration, error correction model to build complete theoretical basis, and then tomodel assumptions and data selection and processing, and then carried out in accordance with the stepsof unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model was constructed and calculated results, thegranger causality test. According to the model analysis, concluded that there is unidirectional causalitybetween consumption and economic growth, residents’ consumption is a short-term effect on economicgrowth, and analyzes its economic significance.Chapter7conclusions and policy recommendations do a summary of full text research, and pointsout that about consumption cycle to the next step research direction. Cycle according to consumptioninfluence on economic growth, combined with chapter2concludes that the causes of the consumptioncycle, mainly aimed at the current macroeconomic situation and the countermeasure research of thecurrent development of domestic consumption demand, for our country government department willhelp to improve the level of consumption and expand the scale of consumption, provide theoretical basisfor economic policy.