| Natural factors such as climate change dominate the area changes from one hundred to one thousand, And in a short time scale, natural factors are cumulative effect and relative stability, so that human activities are affecting the decades to one hundred scale of regional environment change. Reflected in the depth of the basin mean human activities are disturbing the change process of oasis surface water and soil resources system. Heihe river basin is one of the important in continental river basin in the northwest arid areas in our country, middle reaches area of the population scale and the GDP accounted for88.47%and87.93%of the whole basin, respectively. Ganzhou district of Zhangye city is located in the middle of Hosi corridor in gansu province and the east of heihe river basin. Within the territory of Ganzhou district, terrain flat, soil fertile and water abundance relatively. Annual runoff accounted for62%of heihe middle years average runoff; Ganzhou district of zhangye city is the only municipal districts, and in the lead of all counties in heihe middle reaches; Ganzhou district is a typical agricultural area, so agricultural water accounts for absolute dominant subject. The interference of human activities on the natural ecological system the most violent, water-earth-air-born changes affected by human activities is the most significant, anthropogenic influence on its effect in social-economic-ecosystem processes and patterns in the heihe river middle reaches the oasis is a typical representative.Soil and water resources system of Heihe river middle reaches especially affected by human activity. Land use/cover with both social and natural attributes, the land cover change is mainly the result of human activities on land use; Water is not only the basic resources, production of human life and is one of the most important controlling factors of the ecological environment. Firstly, this article analyzes velocity and amplitude of various land use types and comprehensive index of LUCC in the study area under anthropogenic influence from the year2002to2011. Secondly, based on specifying the trend of various types of land use change, this article establishes humanistic factors index system, and simulates multiple linear relationships between humanities factors and LUCC. Finally, it extracts key humanity factors that affect different land use types through Grey Relational Analysis.Secondly, analyzes the utilization of water resources system and the water structure characteristics of all water consumption departments. On the basis of clear water system using features, build the anthropogenic evaluation index of water resources development. Through the index reflect the change of water resources status and the driving action of cultural factors on the change of water resources development; Using factor analysis method to sort the human factors by contribution rate, and extract the main measure of anthropogenic influence; then hierarchical cluster analysis method is used to classify the model the action of the humanistic factors according to the year, to present the relative change of affect of the human behavior to social and economic system water cycle in the study period.Finally, using the method of system dynamics, and selecting the key anthropogenic influence factors with soil and water resources built system dynamics models that Population-Economic-Land resource-Water resources of Ganzhou district of Zhangye city (ZGPELW) development and utilization in the study area. With all kinds of statistical data in2000-2009to debugging and validation the model,2009as a benchmark year,2020as medium-term planning year and2030for the long-term planning year, simulate all kinds of index change from2010to2030to reflect the change trend of land and water in the study area. Prediction and analysis in different scenarios in the future the development pattern of water and soil resource under key anthropogenic influence factors. The main analysis conclusion is as follows:(1) In the overall structure of land use/cover of Ganzhou area from2002to2011, construction land has expanded accelerating, agricultural land resources have been reducing, and the non-agricultural trend of land use structure is evident. Population, poverty and wealth conditions, social economy, technology, policy and cultural concepts resulted in resultant force to promote regional land use/cover change. The contribution rate of different anthropogenic influence are different in the process of land use change of different types.(3)Using grey correlation analysis method in evaluation index system, we found that, agricultural population decline, agricultural science and technology personnel rise and the number of motor-pumped well electricity continuing to grow are the dominant cultural factors index respectively to the change of urban and rural construction land, transportation and water conservancy construction land and cultivated land in2002-2011.(2) Through factor analysis,"Economic development","development of water affairs","population scale" and "water resources development" are the anthropogenic common factor which influence socioeconomic system water circulation of ganzhou district; Using hierarchical clustering method, give a mark to each year anthropogenic factor effect and hierarchical classify. Then reach that the force human behavior to water resources system more and more better.(3) Using system dynamics method analysis show, Scene1——based on the historical development trend of soil and water resources development pattern, water amount under overall, but in the process of ecological water use is reduced year by year, land development is limited to agricultural land and construction land, grassland and garden land surface and other unused land area are no change; Scene2——soil and water resources development pattern under the background of rapid urbanization, is superior to the scene1in urbanization and ecological environment, but gross water surged as the biggest drawbacks, Considering the agricultural irrigation water in2030still occupies about63%of the total water use, Scene3——adjusting agricultural planting structure development pattern, continue to reduce the agricultural irrigation water use, improve agricultural Unilateral water output effect, Predict agricultural land2030increase7100ha, construction land increase500ha. Gross of water resource utilization reduce to611million m3, water change trend of four departments show that: industrial water increase year by year, and then, in2027begin to decline, domestic water generally increased slightly, in2029began to decline, agricultural water reduce, and ecological water increase. |
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