Governance Modes Research Of Water Environment Based On Computational Experiment:a Case Study Of Taihu Lake Basin

The complexity during water pollution and governance in basin may emergence some complex system behavior and cause difficult between understanding basin contamination and formulating effective control plan. Simultaneously, it requests the researcher and the policy maker should translate concept and way with paying more attention to the complexity which caused by interactive behavior between multiply participants. Computational experiments show significance on the research of behaviors, emergency, and the relation between micro-level and macro-level systems. As a typical complex social economy environment system, the water environmental polluting and the governing system is a suitable study subject to the method of computational experiments which to be a good solution for solving basin complexity. This paper take the Tai Lake basin as an example to investigate governance modes of Water environment based on computational experiment and the qualitative quantitative method. The main conclusion included:(1) The problem of water pollution in Basin is a complex natural systematic issue leads by human with which numerous elements, different levels, complex relationship, and multi-objectives, will lead question understanding and the solution should consider the thought and the method of system management and complexity management(2) The current situation of Taihu can be seen as a transformation, which means domestic pollution, nonpoint source pollution and new source pollution are getting more serious, while an increasing number of stakeholders and scholars take Taihu issue as their research object. Such transformation brings about more uncertainty and complexity for pollution control, further challenge current control formula, which based on the total environmental volume and makes plan about how large amount one polluter can legally emission or should reduce from top to bottom. So that the method to make an adaptive management-based emission control formula for Taihu Lake, with a sepcial emphases on adaptive management platform, scientific research and public participation of pollution control, rose to meet the ever-changing stuation.(3) The system model has been built on the basis of complex adaptive system theory in order to explore evolution law of socio-economic environment system under different governance modes. Taking computational experiment method, it demonstrates the dynamics of economic growth, employment, and water pollutants discharge which are caused by agriculture and industry development under the governance modes of economic development priority as well as environmental protection priority. The evolutionary result demonstrates that both the two modes not only promote economical growth and employment, on the basis of comprehensive consideration of society, economics and water environment, but also improve water environment protection. However, environment protection priorities mode is more efficient in water environment protection, although it sacrifice economic and employment growth on certain extent meanwhile. There are some discrepancies in different regions of Taihu Lake basin. Their detail discrepancies can be illustrated as follows:economics accesses the faster growth in Changzhou and Huzhou, employment gets greater increase in Suzhou and Shanghai, and water environment has the most obvious improvement in Wuxi and Suzhou. In addition, the evolutionary process shows less insatiability for the environment protection priorities mode.(4) Aiming at the high-risk of sewage treatment projects operation and the difficulty of control illegal emission, four kinds of computational experiment scenarios are constructed based on whether fluctuations between discharge information and sewage disposal price or not. Then the mechanism of formation of pollution charge, polluters’behaviors, government regulation and public restriction are built, simultaneity, some indexes, such as tolerance degree, demand elasticity, were chosen to analysis the changes of behaviors and nature of enterprises or residences under the triple restriction from economic pressure, social influence and governmental regulation. Finally, computational experiment was used to simulate the dynamic changing of sewage treatment project operation and polluters’behavior in four kinds of situations. The result shows that reasonable static pricing strategy superior to dynamic operator-leading pricing strategy, dynamic external environment lead to high risk for both sewage treatment project operation and illegal emission control, neither pure market-driven pricing regime nor governmental regulation can prevent illegal emission or improve residents to save water and reduce emission, the profit-pursuiting nature of firms and operators will fail to fulfill the objective.(5) Considering heterogeneous but similar product and different type producer and consumer, a clean technology evolutionary modeling is built based on the theory of complex adaptive systems to study the evolution law of clean technology trajectories under competitive selection and supply chain pressure. Computational experiment was used to simulate dynamic changes, demonstrate diversity of evolution characteristics, and analysis evolution influence of different competition situation and initial customer proportion. The results shows that free completion intensity-dependent cannot be ensure enhance product quality and environment level, especially as primary stage of clean technology development, as same as clean technology import intensity-dependent will damage to traditional technology adaptor and causing negative influence to local society. However, it will have the possibility to appear multi-win phenomenon of positive competition and harmonious development between clean and traditional technology, concomitancy with promoting product quality and environment level, and reducing product price, when moderately guidance and control clean technology promotion and application. The computation experiment results have also disclosed how the customer consumer behaviors influence of technology evolution system. The product of traditional technology will be very difficult to enter to a mature market with high environmental protection consciousness; on the contrary, the clean technical product would have opportunity to obtain certain market share in a less-consciousness environmental protection market and will form market segmentation in the late evolution period. In addition, the result indicated system will keep a status of relatively balance with the producer lacking motivation of technical innovation after some experience periods under gradual innovation.