Study On Fire Risk Assessment And Control Of Subway Based On The Fuzzy Theory

With the rapid development of China’s economy, the urbanization process hasgreatly accelerated. Taking subway, with the characteristics of quick speed, highefficiency, giant ability of transportation, low pollution and small occupied areas, hasbecome one of the main ways to deal with a city’s traffic problems. The subway is aplace with high population concentration so that it’s difficult to evacuate people andundertake fire fighting when the fire happens. Therefore, analyzing and evaluating thesubway fire risks scientifically and putting forward measures and emergency plans ofpreventing the subway fires make great sense in reducing and avoiding casualties andproperty damages that caused by the subway fires.Proceeding from mathematical statistics theory, risk analysis theory and systemsafety theory, the thesis first explores the key influencing factors of the subway fireaccidents, and establishes the evaluation index system of the subway fire risks, andalso makes a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for the safety risks of the subway fires.Then, it adopts fuzzy fault tree analysis method to study the influencing degree of theprobability that every major risk factor will occur on the subway fire, and alsoconduct a quantitative evaluation on the subway fire risks.Establish a fault tree model of the subway fire accident by fault tree analysismethod. Find out the fundamental causes of the subway fire accident and identify thehazard sources of the subway fire by getting minimum cut.Proceeding from the mathematical statistics theory and system safety theory，thethesis establishes a systematic, scientific and strong operational evaluation indexsystem of the subway fire risks by making questionnaires and combined withrecognized fire hazard sources, which regards personnel, equipment, management andenvironment as first-class index. Determine the weights in evaluation index of thesubway fire risks by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Apply establishedevaluation index system to evaluate the fire risks of a subway station by the fuzzycomprehensive evaluation method and then reflect the actual security situation of the subway station, which can provide the basis for the firefighting supervision andinspection of the subway management companies and firefighting departments.Establish the fault tree of the subway fire’s major risk factors. Evaluate the subwayfire risks by applying the fuzzy mathematics and fault tree coupling analysis method.And obtain the probability of the subway fire accident by quantitative analysis.Calculate the importance degree of fault tree’s bottom events and work out theprobability importance degree and critical importance degree of every bottom event.Then the sorting of the importance degrees can be served as a reference of arrangingthe order of the subway fire’s preventive measures. The method provides newthoughts for the subway fire risk assessment.Analysis the critical path of controlling the subway fire risks and point out thatthe key lies in reducing combustible, controlling people’s unsafe behavior andimproving the reliability of firefighting systems. Besides, propose control measuresto reduce the subway fire risks from personnel, equipment, management andenvironment.The above study provides guarantees for improving the security of China’s subwayoperation. And it also provides a reference for establishing China’s insurance systemsof the subway fires and pricing the premium rate of the subway fires.